Colorado State vs. Texas odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

March Madness is officially upon us with the first round of the NCAA Tournament set to tip off Thursday. There will be a total of 16 games played Thursday, including a matchup between No. 7 seed Texas and No. 10 seed Colorado State.

The Rams advanced as part of the First Four after taking out Virginia by a score of 67-42 on Tuesday. Joel Scott led them with a double-double of 23 points and 11 rebounds in that win and will hope to carry things over as they look to keep the run alive.

Texas is making its fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance after a run to the Elite Eight this past season. The Longhorns are a veteran team led by seniors Max Abmas and Dylan Disu, and will hope to make yet another run this year.

Odds for Colorado State vs. Texas

Texas is favored by just 2.5 points against Colorado State entering the matchup according to FanDuel. The Longhorns have a moneyline of -144 compared to +120 for the Rams.

The over/under for the game is set at 144.5. Both teams entering the game averaging a combined 152.6 points per game. However, they also both run at a rather slow pace, with each ranking outside the top 175 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom.

Final score predictions for Colorado State vs. Texas

BPI predicted winner: Texas
BPI predicted point differential: 5.7
BPI win probability (for Texas): 71.3%
BPI matchup quality: 82.3

ESPN’s BPI is a model that compares the statistics of both team against each other to predict outcomes. It has a bit more faith in the Texas than Vegas does, predicting the Longhorns to win by 5.7 points. It also gives them a 71.3% chance of victory, or indicating they would win seven out of 10 times played.

However, we know March Madness is a single elimination tournament, and all the Rams need is some magic on their side to move on. The BPI gives this contest a matchup quality rating of 82.3, which ranks it sixth out of the 16 games set to take place Thursday.

KenPom predicted final score: Texas 73, Colorado State 72
KenPom win probability (for Texas): 50%

KenPom is another predictive model similar to BPI. It differs in its predictions for this game, essentially deeming it a coin flip with a tiny edge to Texas, which it predicts to win by one point. It seems fans could be in store for an exciting game with potential to come down to the wire based on this.

How to watch Colorado State vs. Texas

Time: 6:50 p.m. ET
Channel: TNT, Prime Video (streaming)
Location: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC

Colorado State and Texas will be the third of four games set to take place at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte on Thursday. It is set to tip off at 6:50 p.m. on TNT and can also be streamed via Prime Video, which offers access to all tournament games.

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

The winner of this game will move on to face either No. 2 seed Tennessee or No. 15 Saint Peter’s, which are set to play directly after them.