Daytona 500: NASCAR insider predicts winner, top-5 finishers, dark horse

Longtime NASCAR insider Bob Pockrass has made his predictions for today’s Daytona 500 race, naming his projected winner, Top-5 finishers and even a dark horse candidate that could surprise on Sunday.

“The Great American Race,” the official kickoff of the 2025 NASCAR season, gets under way at 2 pm ET from inside the famous 500-mile oval race track in Northeast Florida. While expected rain in the area could temporarily dampen things Sunday afternoon, the Daytona 500 will certainly have plenty of twists and turns — mostly left turns of course — that should keep fans entertained throughout the race.

Check out how Pockrass sees the 2025 Daytona 500 playing out below:

Winner: Brad Keselowski

Pockrass is picking Keselowski, the 2012 Cup Series champion, to win his first-ever Daytona 500 on Sunday after several close calls that have ended prematurely in late-race calamities. Keselowski would be a bit of a longshot winner given his starting spot in the back of the pack at No. 34 among 41 qualifiers.

Still, Keselowski and several other Fords dominated Saturday’s final practice round, and he’s also riding a wave of personal momentum following his 41st birthday on Wednesday and the recent announcement of his and his wife, Paige’s, fourth pregnancy on Thursday. Pockrass certainly seems to expect Keselowski’s big week will continue Sunday.

Top 5

1. Brad Keselowski
2. Alex Bowman
3. Ryan Preece
4. Ryan Blaney
5. Bubba Wallace

Behind Keselowski, Pockrass is projecting another wild Dayton 500 where “The Big One” crash has become a staple of the annual kickoff race. His expected second- and third-place finishers — Bowman and Preece — begin the race in the back of the field in the No. 38 and No. 27 starting spots, respectively, meaning they’d likely need some chaos taking place ahead of them to work their way up the field.

Pockrass also expects big days from Blaney and Wallace, that latter of whom will start in third place after winning the Duel 1 qualifying race earlier this week, begining just behind Duel 2 winner Austin Cindric. Like Keselowski, Blaney is another former Cup champion still seeking his first Daytona 500 win and starts the day at No. 16.

Dark Horse: A.J. Allmendinger

Allmendinger has had back-to-back sixth-place finishes in the last two Daytona 500s and could be primed to finally break through on Sunday. Allmendinger actually has four-straight Top 10 finishes in the Great American Race, and Pockrass clearly likes his chances, especially given his starting position in the lucky No. 13 spot.

The three-time NASCAR Cup Series winner has the unique distinction of never getting caught up in a race-ending wreck, completing the Daytona 500 in all 11 of his previous attempts, which stands as the record for most Daytona 500 starts for a driver without a DNF — did not finish — designation, according to NascarInsights.