Denny Hamlin reacts to Kyle Larson falling below NASCAR playoff cutline

Kyle Larson has been the class of the field more often than not this season and yet, his spot in the Championship 4 at Phoenix on Nov. 10 is far from guaranteed.

The 2021 Cup Series champion heads into this Sunday’s Round of 8 finale at Martinsville seven points below the cutline, despite picking up two victories in eight playoff races (Bristol, Charlotte Roval). Nobody expected Larson to be in this situation, Denny Hamlin said on Monday’s “Actions Detrimental” podcast, but Joey Logano’s surprise victory at Las Vegas and Tyler Reddick’s triumph at Homestead-Miami has the Hendrick Motorsports star on the ropes.

“We didn’t think, especially with the bonus points that the 5 [Larson] had from the regular season, that he’d be in danger,” Hamlin said. “It’s not like he’s had a 30th place finish this round, you just had a couple bottom guys win that were below and all of a sudden it keeps moving that cutline higher and higher… The 5’s gonna have to race the 24 [William Byron] pretty hard at Martinsville and that’s gonna be a close one.”

No driver has found Victory Lane (six) or led more laps (1,616) than Larson in 2024. But with the current playoff format, it’s about getting hot at the right time. Yes, Larson has those two playoff wins under his belt, but two finishes outside the top 10 at Las Vegas and Homestead-Miami have him on the outside looking in.

Kyle Larson facing must-win situation at Martinsville?

Larson had a car capable of winning at Homestead-Miami, battling with Ryan Blaney for the lead in the closing laps. But with 13 laps remaining, Larson’s over aggressiveness cost him. As both went into Turn 3, Austin Dillon, a lap car at the time, hugged the outside wall hoping to stay out of the way. Larson came in hot, got loose trying to dive below Dillon and spun out.

Larson said after the race that Dillon “did nothing wrong.”

“You’re making split-second decisions. Austin did nothing wrong,” Larson said, via Nate Ryan of NBC Sports. “I was just hoping that he would see me coming as [Blaney] got to his inside, and maybe he’d run a lane off the wall just to give me some clean air. He continued to run his line.

“I had a little bit of a hole, and I was trying to shoot the gap to get in front of the No. 3 and get to the wall quickly to either hopefully stay on the outside of the No. 12 or build a run to have a shot at him in [Turns] one and two. But yeah, it just didn’t work out. I was going as hard as I could. The No. 5 Chevy team did a great job rebounding after the flat tire.”

Still, Larson has to feel good about his chances at Martinsville. He’s run well there in the Next Gen era, recording four consecutive top 6 finishes. That includes a victory in last year’s spring race and a runner-up result in the spring race earlier this season.