Duke vs. Vermont odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

Duke starts off NCAA Tournament play with a matchup against Vermont in a No. 4 seed vs. No. 13 seed showdown. And the ACC powerhouse is expected to walk away with the win.

While the likes of No. 4, 5 and 6 seeds are ripe for getting upset in the NCAA Tournament, most projections and predictions are comfortable with the Blue Devils moving on. The betting lines reflect a similar story.

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Check out all you need to know about the Duke-Vermont matchup below.

Odds for Duke vs. Vermont

Duke is, unsurprisingly, a hefty favorite to win. The Blue Devils are 12.5-point favorites as of Thursday evening, according to FanDuel. The over/under is set at 132.5 total points.

And the bets on the money line are equally reflective of the gap between the squads. Duke is sitting at -880 while Vermont is at +580.

Final score predictions for Duke vs. Vermont

BPI predicted winner: Duke
BPI predicted point differential: 12
BPI win probability: 88.5%
BPI matchup quality: 76.5

The BPI keeps in track with what the betting lines show: Duke is a comfortable favorite. Upsets can certainly happen — and Vermont is no stranger to knocking off a No. 4 seed in March — but the Blue Devils aren’t entering the weekend as a trendy pick to lose.

And as such, the matchup quality is rather middle of the road, as the Blue Devils are expected to pull away for a comfortable win.

KenPom Predicted final score: 73-62, Duke
KenPom Win probability (for Duke): 85%

KenPom is the most reserved on Duke, and still has the Blue Devils winning by double digits. But that’s par for the course for a team that lost just eight games all season.

Duke is also entering off back-to-back losses, just the second time the Blue Devils have lost consecutive games in 2023-24. At no point did they lose three in a row.

How to watch Duke vs. Vermont

Time: 7:10 p.m. EST, Friday, March 22
Channel: CBS, Streaming on Prime Video
Location: Brooklyn, NY

Vermont brings a trio of guards averaging double figures in the scoring column into the Round of 64: TJ Power, Aaron Deloney and Shamir Bogues. But the strength of the Vermont roster comes from the fact that four other players average more than seven points per game. That scoring depth led the Catamounts to a 28-6 record in 2023-24.

Duke isn’t as deep in terms of scoring, but the starters bring more to bear. Led by star big man Kyle Filipowski, Duke’s starting lineup all average double figure points per game. Filipowski himself is good for around 17 points and eight rebounds a night.

And behind that scoring Hydra of a starting lineup, Duke is expected to roll into the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.