Duquesne vs. Illinois odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

Illinois won four straight games to claim the Big Ten Tournament title. The team added to their hot streak with a convincing 85-69 victory over No. 14 seed Morehead State in the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 64. On Saturday, the Fighting Illini will look to extend their string of wins as they square off against No. 11 seed Duquesne.

It won’t be easy. On Thursday, Duquesne stunned six-seed BYU in the opening round of the Big Dance. The team is playing is playing for more than a tally in the win column. This is Duquesne head coach Keith Dambrot’s final season. With each win, the Dukes keep their faithful leader’s career alive.

Duquesne isn’t the only team fighting for its coach’s legacy. Under head coach Brad Underwood, Illinois has not advanced past the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. The Fighting Illini will aim to cut Duquesne’s Cinderella story short on Saturday.

Odds for Duquesne vs. Illinois

Las Vegas is confident in Illinois finding a happy ending this weekend. The Fighting Illini are 9.5-point favorites in the matchup, according to FanDuel. Further, the site listed the money line for Illinois at -530 while Duquesne sits at +390. The point total currently sits at 148.5.

Illinois averages 84.4 points per game this season, the ninth-most in the nation. Duquesne’s offense isn’t nearly as potent, only averaging 70.8 points per contest. The Dukes met expectations on Thursday, rattling off 71 points in their upset win over BYU.

Final score predictions for Duquesne vs. Illinois

BPI Predicted winner: Illinois
BPI Predicted point differential: 13
BPI Win probability (for Illinois): 88%
BPI Matchup Quality: 76.2

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It expects Illinois to win by even more than Vegas predicts. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 13 points in Illinois’ favor. It also gives the Fighting Illinis an 88% chance to win.

BPI gives this game a matchup quality score of 76.2, which is the second-worst quality score in Saturday’s slate of showdowns.

KenPom Predicted final score: Illinois 80, Duquesne 70
KenPom Win probability (for Illinois): 82%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Illinois and Duquesne, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Fighting Illini to win by 10 points.

How to watch Duquesne vs. Illinois

Time: Saturday, March 23, 2024 at 8:40 p.m. ET
Channel: TNT, Prime Video (streaming)
|Location: CHI Health Center — Omaha, NE

Illinois and Duquesne will go head-to-head at 8:40 p.m. ET. The winner will advance to the Sweet 16 while the loser’s season will come to an end. The game will take place in the CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska.

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

For fans outside of the area, the game will be broadcast on ESPN. Additionally, fans can tune into the highly-anticipated matchup on Prime Video.