Eight NFC players to keep an eye on as free agency window nears

The NFL free agency period begins on March 16 at 4 p.m. ET. At that point, teams will attempt to balance their “budgets” to plan for their 2022 needs and potential draft moves. Currently, the NFL estimates the average organization’s cap total is $208.2 million.

Based on Spotrac’s cap estimations, the Indianapolis Colts have the most cap space in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Falcons, Giants, Rams, Vikings, Cowboys, Packers and Saints are all in the red.

NFL analytics expert Cynthia Frelund narrowed down the top eight NFC players to watch as teams either restructure or release players in free agency. Frelund used 2022 contract information with models estimating individual win-share totals for the coming season to highlight players who are so misaligned with their contracts that they could be cut in the near future.

Vulnerable NFC players in free agency

Landon Collins – Washington Commanders
Cap Number: $16,918,750

Landon Collins has the second-largest cap sum of all NFL safeties and a disappointing season for Washington is a concern.

Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys
Cap Number: $18,220,000

A former first-round draft pick, Ezekiel Elliott sure would be hard to part with for the Cowboys considering a dead cap figure over $30 million. However, Dallas also has Randy Gregory and Michael Gallup to worry about in free agency. It’s likely that Jerry Jones restructures the deal with Elliott to keep him in the star uniform.

Trey Flowers – Detroit Lions
Cap Number: $23,239,000

According to NextGenStats, Trey Flowers only played 27 percent of possible snaps over the past two seasons, making his 11% cap hit a big red flag for the Lions.

Eddie Goldman – Chicago Bears
Cap Number: $11,810,407

The Chicago Bears new regime will look at every contract they inherited for the 2022 season and 28-year-old Eddie Goldman will top the list. Goldman recorded just a 3.9 percent pressure rate in 2021, his lowest figure since NextGenStats started tracking in 2016.

Tyler Higbee – Los Angeles Rams
Cap Number: $8,050,000

Although Tyler Higbee played a role in the Rams winning the Super Bowl, according to Frelund, models questions whether a late-round tight end couldn’t come in with similar results next season.

Eric Kendricks – Minnesota Vikings
Cap Number: $13,530,000

Eric Kendricks is worth the money to the Vikings but, like the Bears, they may consider moving funds around the achieve their short-term and long-term goals.

Za’Darius Smith – Green Bay Packers
Cap Number: $27,661,250

The Green Bay Packers are in a bit of a holding pattern on their plans until Aaron Rodgers makes a decision. Za’Darius Smith came off of injury in the 2021 season and accounts for 13.2% of the Packers’ already in-the-red cap space.

Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints
Cap Number: $24,700,000

Michael Thomas accounts for almost 12% of the Saints’ salary cap and New Orleans is already $76 million over the limit. Having played in just seven games since his record-setting 2019 campaign, Thomas could be on the chopping block.