Greg McElroy makes picks for top college football games in Week 3

Week 3 of the college football season is here, with several big-time out of conference matchups on the slate, as well as a few important conference games.

There aren’t a ton of ranked teams facing off this weekend, but there are still some intriguing matchups. ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy recently previewed the Week 3 games, breaking down each of the top matchups on the Always College Football podcast.

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McElroy picked winners for several games and also offered thoughts as far as who will cover against the spread for some. Here are his picks for 10 of the top college football games for Week 3:

Alabama at Wisconsin

The Big Noon Kickoff matchup for this week is Wisconsin hosting Alabama in Madison. Both teams are undefeated, but they have yet to play another Power 4 opponent.

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The Crimson Tide are currently favored by 16.5 points, according to FanDuel, and Greg McElroy expects Alabama to role. He explained his pick, sharing that he expects Alabama’s defense to give transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke issues.

“A couple of trends in the game – Alabama is 4-1 against the spread in the last five games against Big Ten teams. Wisconsin, however, 5-0 against the spread in their last five games as a double-digit underdog. And the under is 7-2 in Wisconsin home games since the start of last season,” McElroy said. “I’m taking Alabama. I’m taking them comfortably. As of this moment, Alabama’s vision-based defense, I think, could give fits to Tyler Van Dyke, a guy that has thrown interceptions in the past. I think he might throw one or two this weekend.”

LSU at South Carolina

This game wasn’t expected to be a big one during the preseason, but after the Gamecocks pounded Kentucky last week, it is now. Shane Beamer and company are hosting the Tigers with ESPN College GameDay in town. LSU has been inconsistent so far this year, but McElroy expects the Tigers to go to Columbia and get a win. LSU is currently favored by 6.5 points.

“I think right now we’re getting LSU on sale as far as the court of public opinion. People are looking at them, they’re remembering the USC game,” Greg McElroy said. “I look at the USC game and I thought to myself, ‘Man, there were a lot of opportunities that they had to close that thing out and they didn’t.’

“Meanwhile on the other side, everybody’s feeling great about what they’ve seen from South Carolina’s defense in the first couple of weeks. But I do think there are still a lot of things they have got to figure out offensively. Right now LSU has more firepower, and I think they will eliminate the mistakes that other teams have made against South Carolina this weekend. I’m taking the Tigers to go on the road and get it done.”

Texas A&M at Florida

This is a battle between two teams that got off to disappointing starts to the 2024 season. The Aggies and Gators both suffered home losses in Week 1, before bouncing back to beat lesser opponents last week. Texas A&M was at least competitive against Notre Dame, whereas Florida was blown out by Miami. Still, McElroy believes the Gators will take care of business in Week 3 of the college football season.

“I look at Florida, and I know a lot of people are going to focus on where they’re at, where their program is. I think Florida’s in a really good spot. I think they bounce back. I’m taking the Florida Gators in this one,” McElroy said. “Don’t feel great about it, that’s for sure. The Aggies have better personnel, but I think the inability, or the inconsistency that I’ve seen from the defensive front against the run, is ultimately going to be their undoing.

“I think Florida’s going to run the football. I think they’re going to continue to pound it as much as they can, take the pressure off the passing game. And ultimately they get the win in a got-to-have-it situation for Billy Napier.”

Memphis at Florida State

It has been a rough start to the 2024 season for Mike Norvell and Florida State. The Seminoles enter Saturday’s matchup against Memphis with an 0-2 record after being considered the favorites to win the ACC by many during the preseason. McElroy expects Norvell and company to finally get on track in Week 3 as Norvell faces his former team. The Seminoles are coming off of a bye week, which in theory should help.

“I lean Florida State in the game. I think Florida State bounces back,” McElroy said. “They’ve had a week now to assess where they’re at. They’ve had a week now to identify weaknesses and strengths. And I think they’re going to be a much better team moving forward.

“I still have a ton of faith in this staff. I still have a ton of faith in both sides of the ball, by the way. I think they still have good personnel. And I think we see the best version of them on Saturday against Mike Norvell’s former team.”

Boston College at Missouri

While Florida State has been a disappointing team in the ACC, Boston College has been a pleasant surprise. The Eagles are 2-0 and ranked in the top-25 after winning in Tallahassee and pounding Duquesne. McElroy doesn’t believe Boston College is going to pull off the upset, but he does expect the Eagles to cover the 16.5 points.

“A couple of trends in the game, Boston College is 4-1 against the spread in their last five as a road underdog. Missouri is 5-1 against the spread in their last six against ranked opponents, dating back to last season. And Missouri is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a favorite,” McElroy said. “I’m taking Missouri, but I’m not laying the points. That is way too many against a team that’s as well-coached as Boston College.”

Notre Dame at Purdue

Notre Dame has one of the biggest wins of the college football season, going on the road and beating Texas A&M in its season opener. But the Irish also have one of the worst losses, falling at home to Northern Illinois last week.

McElroy expects the good version of Notre Dame to show up in Week 3. He doesn’t expect the Irish to have any issues in West Lafayette against the Boilermakers. McElroy is using how Notre Dame has performed after losses under Marcus Freeman in the past to make his pick.

“Notre Dame did not come out and play well last year against Louisville, right? Well how did they respond? Well they responded by destroying USC,” McElroy said. “They also didn’t look very good against Marshall or Stanford in 2022. How’d they handle that? Well they beat Cal the following week after losing to Marshall and they beat UNLV the following week after losing to Stanford.

“I’m taking Notre Dame in a big bounce-back performance. I think they handle it. I think they get right. And regardless of what’s going on with their quarterback spot, they have enough to slow down what Purdue’s going to be offensively.”

Oregon at Oregon State

Oregon has been inconsistent so far this year and now faces arguably its toughest test to date in rival Oregon State. The game will be played in Corvallis, which should give the Beavers a nice home-field advantage.

McElroy expects Oregon to win the game, but he isn’t sold on the Ducks being able to cover the 16.5-point spread.

“I’m taking Oregon to win the game, but I’m taking Oregon State to make it really interesting. I think Oregon State has a recipe,” McElroy said. “They’re going to shrink the game, they’re going to disrupt the rhythm and they’re going to keep it close. This is a group that has been really good at home in the past. I expect them to play really well here in a big opportunity for them and for first-year head coach Trent Bray.”

Washington vs. Washington State (in Seattle)

McElroy expects the Cougars to be extremely motivated for this Week 3 rivalry matchup. Washington State was not included in the college football offseason realignment shuffle and instead is in what’s left of the Pac-12. Washington is a 4.5-point favorite entering the game, but McElroy likes the Washington State Cougars to come out on top.

“This is in Seattle. They’re calling it a neutral site. It is a neutral site, technically, and I would not be surprised at all if Washington State has just as many fans as Washington does there in the crowd,” McElroy said. “Washington State is eager for this one. They have circled this one. This is a big opportunity for them. This is one that Washington State absolutely wants to make the most of.

“Now Washington has not allowed a touchdown in two games so far this year. But this is really the first solid offense that Washington has faced. … I think what you’ve got with [John] Mateer, the quarterback at Washington State, I think he’s the real deal. I think they actually are pretty good, too, with his weapons. And I think this offense is going to create a lot of problems. I actually think Washington State. … I’m taking Washington State to actually pull off the upset.”

West Virginia at Pitt

The Backyard Brawl is back and should be highly entertaining with two motivated teams. West Virginia is currently a 1.5-point road favorite over the Panthers, but McElroy is going with the home team.

“[Pitt has] enjoyed a nice little offensive resurgence with the win against Cincinnati last week. Now they get an opportunity to play your rival. They are right in your back yard. Eli Holstein has looked really solid in this new-look Pitt offensive scheme, which is being run right now by Western Carolina’s offensive coordinator Kade Bell,” McElroy said. “So after a bit of a slow start, Holstein finished with 302 yards and three touchdowns in the come-from-behind win last week.

“Can he keep it going against another solid Big 12 foe that’s going to try to run the football and establish physical dominance? We’ll find out. I actually like Pitt in the game. I think Pitt’s going to upset West Virginia, sell out against the run and make life difficult on the Mountaineers.”

Colorado at Colorado State

Finally, McElroy picked one more rivalry game in Week 3 of the college football season in Colorado vs. Colorado State. The Rams are highly motivated after coming up just short last season and have been talking a little junk ahead of this year’s matchup. However, McElroy likes the Buffaloes to win fairly easily on Saturday.

“It does not appear that Colorado has found the fix to the challenges that they’ve had along the offensive line and that could be an issue as they continue to move forward,” McElroy said. “We know Deion Sanders has been frustrated. Through two games, Colorado has committed 12 penalties. They’ve lost 134 yards as a result of those penalties. They are 98th nationally. And on the other side, Colorado State, pretty solid. Second nationally with just four penalties through two games.

“Discipline, in an emotional game, in a bounce back situation for Colorado could be massive here. Here’s the problem, Colorado State has not been good on defense. They’re allowing nearly 35 points a game. … I like Colorado in this game. I know last year it was close. I don’t think Colorado’s going to be sleeping on Colorado State this year. And I would expect them to play well in the game.”