Fox Sports ranks rookie NFL head coaches, projects order of their team's finish

As training camps open everywhere, we hear all about the stars and the first-year guys who could make big impacts. But what about the first-year head coach making his NFL debut?

There are eight new guys in the league this season. Two of them — Jim Harbaugh and Dan Quinn — aren’t really rookies, but they did take big breaks between NFL head coaching jobs.

Others are young and replacing legends. Fox Sports recently took a look at the eight and predicted how they’d finish in their debut seasons.

Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers

Fox Sports projects Harbaugh will have the best record of any NFL rookie head coach, with a 10-7 record. Now technically, he’s not a rookie, since he coached the 49ers years ago before heading off to Michigan. Harbaugh may have it easier than other coaches because he has quarterback Justin Herbert on the roster.

Fox Sports wrote: There’s no doubt the Chargers won the biggest prize of the offseason when they landed Harbaugh, the man the NFL has been after for nearly a decade. Whatever anyone thinks of him, his personality or his methods, he wins everywhere he goes. That includes the NFL, where he went 44-19-1 from 2011-14 in San Francisco and took the 49ers to three NFC championship games and a Super Bowl.

Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons

Like Harbaugh, Morris also has a veteran quarterback on his roster in Kirk Cousins. However, Cousins ruptured his Achilles last October while he was with the Vikings. Plus, the Falcons have some good young talent, including running back Bijan Robinson, which is my Fox Sports projects a record of 10-7.

Fox Sports pointed out that Morris beat out Bill Belichick for the job. That’s a start. And “Morris is well-regarded in the NFL. If he’s as good as everyone believes, there’s a chance for a huge improvement in Atlanta.”

Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders

Pierce already has a leg up on most of the new rookie coaches in the NFL. He inherited the temporary job when the Raiders fired Josh McDaniel on Halloween last season. Pierce and the Raiders then finished the year at 5-4. Fox thinks this year’s team will go 8-9. The new quarterback should be Gardner Minshew.

“The fiery Pierce will have his team ready for every game,” Fox Sport says. “The defense is good enough to keep them in every game. But that offense makes their ceiling very low.

Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks

Mike Macdonald will replace Pete Carroll, a legend around Seattle. He was the defensive mastermind with the Ravens. He’s got a good nucleus of offense going for him with quarterback Geno Smith and receivers D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Still, Fox Sports projects a record of 8-9.

“The Seahawks barely missed the playoffs last season, but they looked much more like a team starting over this offseason,” says Fox Sports. But counting on a new coach, a new philosophy, and so many young players could be tough in a division topped by the 49ers and Rams.

Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans

The Titans hired Callahan, who was previously the offensive coordinator with the Bengals, to replace Mike Vrabel. And Callahan, as an NFL rookie coach, likely will elevate Tennessee’s passing offense with quarterback Will Levis and the additions of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. However, they lost Derrick Henry to the Ravens. Tony Pollard probably won’t have the same impact as King Henry.

Still, Fox Sports predicts a 7-10 season. Why? It’s the division. The Titans “are also in an increasingly tough division behind both the Texans and Jaguars — who could be contenders in the AFC — and the improving Indianapolis Colts. Even a big leap by the quarterbacks might not get them out of the basement, even if their record is slightly improved.

Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders

Quinn isn’t a rookie NFL head coach. Far from it. He just hasn’t been a head coach since the 2020 season when he directed the Falcons. He spent the past three seasons as defensive coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys. His projected record this season is 6-11.

Quinn brought in some nice offensive pieces. The Commanders selected Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick in the draft. And Washington also hired Kliff Kingsbury, an offensive innovator, as the new OC. “The key, of course, will be how quickly rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels will be the player they expect him to be,” Fox Sports says. “Even if that happens fast, though, they could struggle in a division with the Eagles and Cowboys, two legit Super Bowl contenders.”

Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers

Canales is known for his work with quarterbacks. He helped restart the careers of both Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith. And in his rookie season as an NFL head coach, he’ll get to mold Bryce Young, last year’s No. 1 pick of the draft. Still, not many folks think Canales is going to sport a gaudy record this year. Fox Sports predicts 5-12. But the bright sideis that that’s three more wins than in 2023.

Fox says Canales’ greatest task will be getting Young on track. “How well he does that means everything for both this season and for how long Canales lasts in Carolina. Young has a better line in front of him this season and better receivers, so he is set up for at least mild improvement. But again, that’s if he can do it. That’s very much unclear.”

Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots

There’s absolutely no pressure on Mayo, given that he’s replacing Bill Belichick, right? Well, the Patriots had been sinking with the legend in charge. So Mayo will need to steady the franchise. The first move was to select quarterback Drake Maye with the third pick in the draft. Still, Fox Sports believes New England will go 3-14. That’s not a great NFL debut for a rookie head coach.

“On the bright side,” says Fox Sports, “the Patriots defense was pretty good last season. But how much of that was Belichick, who still was one of the best defensive minds in the game? Mayo, who was Belichick’s inside linebackers coach, will find out quickly, because he’s going to need that defense to be just as good if he hopes to win any games at all.”

All these rookie coaches will soon be on the sidelines as NFL teams open their training camps this week. And to catch up on all the NFL news, click it here for On3.com coverage.