Friday Pick-Six: Week 1 best bets include Miami-Florida, Notre Dame-Texas A&M, LSU-USC

Welcome back to The Friday Pick-Six!

Each week, I’ll pick five games — either against the spread or over/under, plus one outright Upset De Jour. 

I finished the 2023 regular-season 35-28-2 ATS, and 6-7 in my weekly upset specials. 

Once again, I’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!) the picks. Week 0 had just four games, but now we get to dive into a massive slate for Week 1.

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The opening weekend of college football is always really tricky from a gambling perspective. We don’t really know a ton about these teams, and yet, it’s tough to find great value with a lot of the lines because they’ve been out for months. 

There’s just three ranked-on-ranked matchups during Labor Day weekend, as well as a couple other really tasty power conference affairs. 

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Let’s make some picks. 

(All point spreads courtesy of FanDuel).

No. 7 Penn State at West Virginia (+8.5, 51.5)

Drew Allar had one of the best games of his career against West Virginia in 2023, throwing for over 300 yards with three touchdowns. It was the one game all season where the Nittany Lions were actually explosive (11.2 yards per attempt) through the air. Can the junior replicate such success with a new, highly-praised offensive coordinator (Andy Koltinicki) and on the road? 

Morgantown is going to be on fire at high noon, and Neal Brown’s team was 5-1 at home last season. The Mountaineers have enough funky offensive firepower (quarterback Garrett Greene, h-back CJ Donaldson, speedster Jahiem White) in the backfield to frustrate a Penn State front seven that’s breaking in several new starters in a new scheme. 

Still, I’m going against the grain here because while James Franklin can’t beat a Top 10 team, he’s one of the best coaches in the sport as an ATS favorite. PSU notably scored a late touchdown in this very game last season to cover the spread. And yet, I’m banking on WVU sneaking in a backdoor cover in reverse fashion this time around. 

THE PICK: WVU +8.5

No. 14 Clemson vs. No. 1 Georgia (-13.5, O/U 48.5 )

This spread is indicative of the diverging directions of how these two programs are viewed in 2024. Just three seasons ago, the Tigers were a 3-point favorite in this very matchup (Charlotte vs. Atlanta). Now, Dabo Swinney’s team is nearly a two-touchdown underdog because Clemson hasn’t recruited as well, refuses to plug roster holes via the transfer portal and has a major question mark at quarterback. Conversely, Georgia hasn’t lost a regular-season game in three years and just inked another No. 1 recruiting class.

Cade Klubnik has been brutal away from Death Valley, averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt with eight interceptions to only five touchdowns in seven road/neutral site starts. Will Klubnik show a ton of growth in his second season as a starter against the best defense Clemson will face all season? I’m skeptical. 

The Bulldogs will be shorthanded at tailback with the likely suspension of Trevor Etienne, but Carson Beck and a top-flight offensive line should still find success against a salty Clemson defense. Aside from QB, the Tigers have a championship-caliber starting 22, but their lack of depth and offensive juice will show up in the second half where the Bulldogs turn onto pythons and boa constrictor their way to a double-digit victory.

THE PICK: Georgia -13.5

Fresno State at No. 9 Michigan (-20.5, O/U 46.5)

The Wolverines can physically maul at least 9 of the 12 teams on their schedule, including a Fresno State offense that lost head coach and play-caller Jeff Tedford to a sudden retirement in mid-July. 

But while I have little questions about Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham and the rest of a nasty Michigan defense, what are we going to see from UM’s new-look offense? Alex Orji is considered the frontrunner to start Saturday, but multiple quarterbacks are expected to play. Will Sherrone Moore try to get Orji or Davis Warren into a groove, building confidence before a major showdown with Texas in Week 2? Or will the first-year head coach look to simply bleed out the game behind a ton of Donovan Edwards runs and not show many of his cards?

The Bulldogs’ defense is seen as the better of their team’s two units, and so with my uncertainty about Michigan’s offense, I’m rolling with the under. 

THE PICK: Under 46.5

No. 8 Notre Dame at No. 20 Texas A&M (-2.5, O/U 46.5)

On Monday, I picked Texas A&M heads up against Andy Staples on his show, but the deeper I dive into this game, I’m more bullish on the total. Irish quarterback Riley Leonard is going up against his former head coach in Mike Elko, so there’s familiarity one both sides. Who holds the edge, though?

Led by Purdue transfer Nic Scourton, Texas A&M might have the best defensive line in the SEC, and they’re going up against a starting offensive line with a combined six total starts. Conversely, the Irish’s defensive line is a Top 10 unit nationally, too and their secondary features multiple All-Americans. 

I still lean TAMU at home (although Kyle Field is overrated in terms of its purported advantage as the Aggies are 3-10 against Top 10 teams at home since 2000), but this game his rock fight written all over it. Slow pace. Playmaker concerns for teams and two ex-DCs as head coaches. 

THE PICK: Under 46.5

No. 13 LSU (-4.5, O/U 63.5) vs. No. 23 USC 

This is the true Spiderman meme realized in CFB form: Two third-year head coaches at powerhouse programs with big-armed, first-year starters at quarterback and completely overhauled defensive staffs. 

Considering the Tigers’ recent success — both on the field and on the recruiting trail — Lincoln Riley’s Trojans are basically budget LSU. With Miller Moss now QB1, Riley needs to rebound from last season’s 7-5 campaign where USC wasted the brilliance of Caleb Williams. 

But there’s more pressure on Brian Kelly in this game. He can’t lose a stand-alone opener for the third-straight year — as a favorite in all three games. I have concerns about LSU’s secondary against USC’s aerial attack but Garrett Nussmeier can win a shootout playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the country (and far and away the top overall unit in this game). 

THE PICK: LSU -4.5

MY UPSET DU JOUR

No. 19 Miami at Florida (+2.5, O/U 54)

Come around 7 p.m. Saturday night, one of these two fan bases will be apoplectic, so go ahead and bookmark a tab with Message Board Geniuses to witness all the fire and brimstone one can imagine. 

This game has been dissected to death, with so many narratives surrounding each head coach. Both Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier desperately need to win on Saturday — but there can only be one. Cristobal has the more talented roster and recently hired a time management assistant (just 10 years too late!). Meanwhile, Napier is adamant this is his best team to date and his offseason staff changes should produce improved results. 

I still expect this Sunshine State Showdown to feature all sorts of tomfoolery and dumbassery from both teams. Give me the Gators outright. For nine months, they’ve been told they stink and are set for a hopeless 2024 season. They ride that steam to a sloppy, messy upset in The Swamp. 

THE PICK: Florida ML