Grambling State vs. Purdue odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

No. 1 seed Purdue and No. 16 seed Grambling State are set to square off in the NCAA Tournament on Friday in an opening-round game. Grambling State has already made it through a play-in game, beating Montana State 88-81.

Purdue, of course, will be looking to avoid the same fate it suffered a year ago, when it was upset as a No. 1 seed by Fairleigh Dickinson. Suffice it to say the Boilermakers should be plenty motivated.

On3 stops to provide the spread for the game, as well as key information on how you can watch the game, plus some analytic predictions for the matchup. Let’s break it down below.

Odds for Purdue vs. Grambling State

Coming into the game, Purdue is a 26.5-point favorite over Grambling State, per FanDuel. The Boilermakers are also currently listed at -10000 for the moneyline, right now, while the Tigers are sitting at +3000.

The point total for the game is currently set at 139.5 points. If both teams scored at their season average for points, there would be a total of 152.1 points scored.

Final score predictions for Purdue vs. Grambling State

BPI Predicted winner: Purdue
BPI Predicted point differential: 31.9
BPI Win probability (for Purdue): 99.5%
BPI Matchup Quality: 59.7

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 31.9 points in Purdue’s favor. It also gives the Boilermakers a 99.5% chance to win the game over the Tigers.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 59.7, which is the worst quality score of the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Purdue 82, Grambling State 59
KenPom Win probability (for Purdue): 98%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Purdue and Grambling State, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Boilermakers to win by 23.

How to watch Purdue vs. Grambling State

Time: 7:25 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS, Prime Video (streaming)
Location: Indianapolis, IN

Purdue and Grambling State are set to tip off at 7:25 p.m. ET. It will also be played at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind., rather than an on-campus venue, as part of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

For fans outside of Indianapolis, the game can be watched on TBS. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through Prime Video, which does have an option for a free trial.