Why you should not bet on a Heisman Trophy winner in 2024

There are only a few more weeks for bettors to place their preseason college football wagers ahead of a highly anticipated 2024 college football season. A year that features a new playoff format, new look conferences, and impact players joining new teams with plenty of potential for money to be made.

Greg McElroy recently had Joe Fortenbaugh and Tyler Fulghum from ESPN BET Live join him on Always College Football to talk about some bets ahead of the season. With Fortenbaugh specifically telling sports gamblers to be ware of one preseason bet in particular that he’s not a fan of.

“As unpopular as it is, I think one of the best markets to avoid is the Heisman market,” Fortenbaugh said. “Everyone wants to talk about it, like we’re going to talk about it, but the reality is the favorite hasn’t hit since [Marcus] Mariota in 2014. And you’ve had, I believe, six of the last 15 have started the season either at 100 to 1 [odds] or greater or they haven’t even been posted.”

Not many individual awards in sports compare to the history and tradition that comes with the Heisman Trophy. But Fortenbaugh believes that bettors should avoid predicting who will take it home in December until a little bit later in the season.

“Like that’s a market that you can find great spots throughout the course of the year, and I think playing it early in the year, I don’t think it’s a smart move,” Fortenbaugh added. “I think you can find a lot better ways to attack the Heisman market once we get in season and you pay attention to the upcoming spots on the schedule.”

“It’s hard to argue with that at all,” McElroy responded. “I don’t know how anyone can get on board with a Heisman bet. Because one, the odds aren’t that great. I mean in some cases you’re getting 10, 12, 15, to 1 in some spots. I’d rather make a play on an Oklahoma State to win the Big 12. At least there’s a little more predictability, I kind of know what’s coming.”

It’s no secret that narratives and other factors play a role in who takes home the Heisman Trophy in December. As Fortenbaugh and McElroy both seem to side with betting a Heisman winner based on who has the potential to take the college football landscape by storm following a strong start to the season.

“The Heisman’s popularity contest and it’s really going to come down to the best quarterback, arguably, on one of the best teams. So you take the playoff contenders, you shrink the field, then it becomes a quarterback award, and more often than not, you could probably figure out who the guys are going to be.,” McElroy explained. “And at that point, when there’s really only seven or eight candidates, is there good value at 10 to 12 to 1? I’d rather place it elsewhere. If I only had so many bullets, I’m only going to spend them on things that I feel are a little more predictable.”

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel currently leads the field with +700 odds to take home this year’s Heisman Trophy. Who could potentially follow Mariota’s footsteps as a favorite to win with the Ducks among plenty of other qualified contenders.