Greg McElroy picks LSU at Florida, more Week 12 games

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy picks the biggest games of the college football weekend every week on the Always College Football podcast.

McElroy’s selections for Week 12 of the season are in, including the SEC showdown between LSU and Florida. McElroy doesn’t just pick winners of games, but he also picks games against the spread. Here are all of his picks for Week 12:

Texas (-13.5) at Arkansas

Arkansas has already knocked off one top 5 team at home this season in Tennessee. The Razorbacks will look to play the role of giant killer once again this weekend when Texas comes to town.

With Texas joining the SEC ahead of the 2024 season, these two old rivals will get back to playing more often moving forward. The Razorbacks have been good against the spread as big underdogs the last couple of years, but McElroy expects Texas to handle the Razorbacks.

“I’m taking the Texas Longhorns. I think it’s a bad matchup for Arkansas,” McElroy said. “I think Arkansas will throw their best punch, but unfortunately for Arkansas, this game’s at Noon. … I think it’s a bad matchup for the Hogs and the Horns get the job done.”

Utah at Colorado (-11.5)

Colorado has been one of the biggest surprises of the college football season. The Buffaloes are 7-2 (5-1) as they welcome Utah to town and control their own destiny to reach the Big 12 title game and College Football Playoff.

As for the matchup against the Utes, Greg McElroy doesn’t believe Utah can keep up with the Colorado offense.

“I just don’t think Utah has enough weapons to be able to create enough offense against a defense that is improved,” McElroy said. “I think Utah will hang. I think they’ll shrink the game. But ultimately it won’t be enough. I like Colorado, but I will take the points here.”

Tennessee at Georgia (-10.5)

Arguably the biggest game of the college football weekend is Georgia hosting Tennessee. The Bulldogs are looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss at Ole Miss and are heavy favorites as the Vols come to town.

As for Tennessee, the Vols have won four straight since falling at Arkansas. However, the status of quarterback Nico Iamaleava is up in the air. McElroy is a believer in the Tennessee defense and believes 10.5 points is too many, no matter who is in at quarterback.

“I think Tennessee’s defense is going to completely hold this Georgia offense in check. … I’ll take Georgia, but it’s purely because of desperation,” McElroy said. “I don’t think they can pull away, and I think their defense is going to have to win them the game.”

Oregon (-14.5) at Wisconsin

Oregon is undefeated, ranked No. 1 and has been rolling since beating Ohio State 32-31 back in October. The Ducks have won their last four games by 21 or more points.

Oregon is set to close out the road portion of its schedule on Saturday at Wisconsin. The Badgers have dropped back-to-back games, and McElroy expects them to fall once again on Saturday.

“I will take Oregon in the game, but I anticipate it looking quite like Wisconsin’s last few games against competition comparable to Oregon,” McElroy said. “I think it’s a slow start, Oregon figures it out, and they turn on the gas and pull away in the second half.”

Kansas at BYU (-2.5)

BYU is undefeated and ranked No. 6 in the country entering Saturday’s game against 3-6 Kansas. However, the Cougars are only favored by 2.5 points. That seems like an incredibly low spread, especially considering the game is at BYU.

Kansas has played just about everyone close this year and is coming off of a 45-36 win over Iowa State. McElroy warned that the Cougars better be careful.

“I’m taking Kansas. I think it’s just one of those spots that is terrible for BYU,” McElroy said. “I think they’ve been playing with fire. I think this is the type of offense that can burn them, as long as Kansas doesn’t turn it over.”

Clemson (-11.5) at Pitt

Greg McElroy is calling this game, so he didn’t provide a pick for Clemson vs. Pitt. He did offer some thoughts on the matchup, though. A few weeks back this looked like an intriguing game with perhaps ACC Championship and College Football Playoff implications.

But Clemson and Pitt have both dropped games recently, and the Panthers could be without starting quarterback Eli Holstein against the Tigers.

“It’s a must-win for Clemson, because this is the final conference game for them,” McElroy said. “I think this is going to be a game that Pitt wants to lean heavily on the ground and pound attack.”

Ohio State (-28.5) at Northwestern

Ohio State and Northwestern will face off at an unusual venue for a college football game. The two Big Ten programs will play at Wrigley Field, the home of the Chicago Cubs, on Saturday.

McElroy expects Ohio State to take care of business and set up a huge game against Indiana next weekend.

“I think Ohio State will obliterate Northwestern. I think they win convincingly,” McElroy said.

LSU (-4.5) at Florida

LSU is looking to bounce back from an ugly showing against Alabama when it travels to The Swamp to take on Florida on Saturday. The Gators are also looking to rebound from a poor showing at Texas last weekend.

A big thing to watch for on Saturday is the status of Gators quarterback DJ Lagway. He has been listed as questionable on the injury report. McElroy is going with the upset.

“I’m taking Florida in the game. I don’t think LSU has solved their problems with quarterback run,” McElroy said. “I’m taking the Gators, and that’s under the assumption that Lagway will play.”

Virginia at Notre Dame (-22.5)

The Fighting Irish absolutely dominated Florida State last weekend, pounding the Seminoles 52-3 as they continue to work to improve their College Football Playoff resume. Now Notre Dame welcomes Virginia to town after the Cavaliers upset Pitt last weekend to move to 5-4 on the year.

The Cavaliers are one win away from becoming bowl eligible, but McElroy doesn’t expect UVA to get that win this week.

“I do think [the Irish] are able to control the flow of the game, but do not let Anthony Colandrea get hot. This guy’s really fun to watch,” McElroy said of the Virginia QB. “I think the Irish win, but I’m not laying the points.”

Boston College at SMU (-18.5)

SMU has been one of the biggest surprises of the college football season. The Mustangs are 8-1 on the year, 5-0 in ACC play and have a real shot to reach the ACC title game and perhaps the College Football Playoff.

As for BC, the Eagles are 5-4 (2-3) and have lost three of their past four games. Boston College made a quarterback change this past weekend, leading to Thomas Castellanos leaving the program to transfer. McElroy likes SMU to win comfortably.

“I think this thing gets sideways from the beginning,” McElroy said. “I’ll take SMU. I’ll lay the points. I feel good about the performance we’re going to get from the ponies.”

Missouri at South Carolina (-13.5)

The Gamecocks are one of the hottest teams in college football and have won three straight games, all by 20-plus points. Missouri has been up-and-down this year, but the Tigers are 7-2 (3-2) and still in CFP contention.

Missouri is unlikely to have quarterback Brady Cook against the Gamecocks as he is doubtful on the injury report. With the way the South Carolina defense is playing, McElroy believes that could be trouble for the Tigers.

“I’m not sold on Missouri — at all. I think the schedule’s been manageable. I think they’ve had some luck. … South Carolina, they’re too good,” McElroy said. “I think South Carolina’s defense will have their way with an offense that has had some challenges in recent weeks. … I’ll take South Carolina in a rather convincing performance at home.”

Arizona State at Kansas State (-8.5)

The final college football game for Week 12 that McElroy broke down is Arizona State at Kansas State. Both teams have identical 7-2 (4-2) records. McElroy believes Kansas State will win at home.

“I feel like K State is due for a full and complete 60-minute performance against a top tier team,” he said.