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Kentucky vs. Auburn odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Wildcats, Tigers

Alex Weberby:Alex Weber02/17/24
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Photo by Jake Crandall | USA TODAY NETWORK

With one of the nation’s most hostile and most effective home-court advantages, the Auburn Tigers have not disappointed their fans in 2023-24, and they are the favorites across the board against Kentucky this afternoon/evening.

Arguably no team in the country is benefitted by their home venue as much as Auburn, who is 13-0 in front of The Jungle this season with their smallest margin of victory being 11 points against Texas A&M. They just lost to Florida by 16 points on the road and then rebounded to pound No. 11 South Carolina 101-61 at home. Now, GameDay comes to town along with an up-and-down but talented Kentucky team.

For all of the relevant info — tip time, TV channel, point spreads and predictions — go ahead and read below:

Odds for Kentucky vs. Auburn

According to FanDuel, Auburn is the home favorite by 8.5 points as of Saturday morning. On the surface, that sounds pretty large, but remember, the Tigers’ closest home game this season was decided by double figures. So even if Kentucky misses by one point to lose by nine, well, that’d still be the best effort yet vs. Auburn.

That’s why Bruce Pearl’s club is also heavy favorites on the money line at -385 compared to Kentucky’s +300. Meanwhile, the over/under is set at a lofty 164.5 points.

Final Score Predictions

KenPom final score: Auburn 87, Kentucky 77
KenPom win probability: Auburn 82%

KenPom gives the friendlier outcome in the Wildcats’ direction of the two, predicting a mere 10-point loss for UK while expecting an Auburn win with an 82% chance. The Tigers are the No. 4 team in his metrics while Kentucky is 26th.

BPI projected winner: Auburn
BPI win probability: 85.2%
BPI projected point difference: 12.5 points
BPI Matchup Quality: 82.3 (13th of the day)

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) is the most bullish of anyone on the Tigers today, as it foresees an Auburn win by greater than a dozen against Kentucky. It also gives Auburn a greater than 85% chance of victory — but yet, the contest still scores alright in the matchup quality metric as the 13th-best game of a loaded Saturday slate.

How to watch Kentucky vs. Auburn

Time: 6 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. CT
Channel: (ESPN), FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Auburn, Alabama (Neville Arena)

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Per just about every analytic model, sports book an d prognosticator, Auburn is the expected winner in today’s home game vs. Kentucky… and by double digits. It’ll either be another fun, fun night in Neville Arena, or a massive win for the Wildcats