Kentucky vs. Alabama odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch SEC Tournament

The Alabama Crimson Tide swept the Kentucky Wildcats in the regular season with wins in January and February. Now, the two will meet again in March, with a quarterfinal today in the SEC Tournament being between No. 3 Alabama and No. 6 Kentucky.

Alabama (24-7, 13-5) is making its first appearance in the conference tournament as one of the four teams who earned a double-bye in the bracket. That’s after ‘Bama won 10 of its first 11 in league play before dropping 4-of-7 to finish. All of the games came against ranked opponents. However, among the three wins, one was one of the wins over the Wildcats, while another was an overtime victory on the road with a game-winning floater against Auburn to send the Tigers into the postseason.

Kentucky (22-10, 10-8) is then coming off a wild win of its own in its opening game of the SEC Tournament. UK led by as much as a dozen with four and a half minutes left in its second-round matchup with Oklahoma before a complete collapse with a 19-6 run by the Sooners, giving a one-point lead to OU with just seconds left. Then, in driving the length of the floor, Otega Oweh floated one in with his off-hand off the right baseline to eliminate his former team and win it for the Wildcats.

Alabama beat Kentucky both times that they played in the series this season. The Crimson Tide won in a 102-97 shootout in Lexington behind big outings from their duo in Mark Sears (24 points, nine assists) and Grant Nelson (25 points (53.9% FG), 11 rebounds) and then again at 96-83 in Tuscaloosa behind another 30 points from Sears.

Odds for Kentucky vs. Alabama

Per the latest odds at FanDuel, Alabama is a 7.5-point favorite (-105) over Kentucky. That has the Wildcats at (+240) on the moneyline as the underdog.

The total is then at a very high total of 179.5 points. That’s fitting, though, with two of the top three scoring offenses and two of the top 10 in offensive efficiency in the country. In other words, a high-scoring affair could be scheduled as the nightcap in Music City.

Final score predictions for Kentucky vs. Alabama

BPI Predicted Winner: Alabama
BPI Predicted Point Differential: 2.8
BPI Win Probability (for Alabama): 52.1%
BPI Matchup Quality: 93.9

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) is predicting a much closer game here. It has Alabama winning by just under a three-pointer with a tight win probability of 52.1% for the Tide.

As for matchup quality, this is the second highest-rated game on the schedule today in the sport behind only No. 2 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Arizona tonight in a semifinal in the Big 12 Tournament. That means it’s the highest-rated game of the four quarterfinals today in the Southeastern Conference ahead of No. 2 Florida vs. No. 7 Missouri, No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Texas, and No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 8 Ole Miss.

KenPom Predicted Final Score: Alabama 92, Kentucky 88
KenPom Win Probability (for Alabama): 62%

KenPom also is projecting a closer game in this quarterfinal than the spread is. It is predicting a four-point win for the Crimson Tide at a probability of 62%.

How to watch Kentucky vs. Alabama

Time: 9:30 p.m. EST, 8:30 p.m. CT
Channel: SEC Network
Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, Tennessee)

Alabama and Kentucky could give us a game worth waiting up for, especially if they are what they have been offensively. However, only one will score enough to make it into the semifinals on Saturday.