Kentucky vs. Tennessee odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch in NCAA Tournament

Kentucky vs. Tennessee is one of the better basketball rivalries, especially recently,, in the SEC. Now, the two cross-state programs will meet for a third time this season, and for the first time ever this deep into the year, in the Sweet 16 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Tennessee (29-7) advanced into the Sweet 16 with wins over Wofford and UCLA, ironically enough inside Rupp Arena, in their bracket. The Vols’ backcourt in Chaz Lanier (24.5 ppg. on 47.2% FG, 55.6% 3PT) and Zakai Zeigler (13.5 points, 9.0 assists, 2.5 steals) led them in the wins to reach the second weekend for the fourth straight season and sixth time in the last eight years.

Kentucky (24-11) will then return to the Sweet 16 for the first time this decade after a pair of wins over Troy and Illinois. The Wildcats got contributions throughout the roster, especially their starters but namely Otega Oweh (17.5 points (56% FG), six rebounds), Koby Brea (18 points (60% FG, 42.9% 3PT), and Amari Williams (6.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, five assists, two blocks), in Milwaukee to extend their record number of appearances in the second weekend by getting there for the first time since 2019.

Again, Kentucky and Tennessee have never met before during March Madness. That’s after playing each other a total of 241 times, with the Wildcats leading at 163-78 all-time, going back in 1910 – including a sweep this season for UK with a 78-73 win in Knoxville and then a 75-64 win in Lexington.

Odds for Kentucky vs. Tennessee

Per the opening odds at FanDuel, Tennessee is a 4.5-point favorite over Kentucky. That has the Wildcats at (+160) on the moneyline in this game.

The over-under is then at a total of 145.5 points. The under is slightly favored at (-105), though, with the Volunteers having one of the best defenses in the country. That said, the Wildcats have one of the better offenses in the nation on that same side of the court.

Final score predictions for Kentucky vs. Tennessee

BPI Predicted winner: –
BPI Predicted point differential: –
BPI Win probability (for -): –
BPI Matchup Quality: –

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) has not yet made a prediction for this matchup.

KenPom Predicted final score: Tennessee 76, Kentucky 71
KenPom Win probability (for Tennessee): 65%

KenPom has projected a similar outcome in favor of Tennessee. It has the Vols taking a five-point win in Indy at a probability of 65%.

How to watch Kentucky vs. Tennessee

Time: 7:39 ET, 6:39 CT on March 28th (Friday)
Channel: truTV
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)

This will be an all-time matchup in the series between Tennessee and Kentucky with what’ll be on the line. Both teams, as well as their fanbases, will now have the week to prepare for it before the Vols and ‘Cats tip off in Indy on Friday.

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