Kevin Harvick evaluates Denny Hamlin's chances to advance in playoffs at Martinsville

Kevin Harvick may have picked Denny Hamlin to win the NASCAR Cup Series title in 2024, but he’s not exactly confident in the veteran wheelman to get the job done over the next two weeks.

Hamlin is currently 18 points below the cut-line in the Round of 8, and he’ll likely have to win at Martinsville this weekend to get to Phoenix. During the latest episode of Kevin Harvick’s Happy Hour, the namesake evaluated where Hamlin stands, and if he could pull off the win with his back against the wall, similar to Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick over the past two weeks.

“He has been good in this car too, at times. More than not, with this particular car. I think he can still point his way in,” Harvick said, regarding Hamlin’s potential and past at Martinsville. “There’s going to be somebody that goes on points. So I still think that he can point his way in, but I think it starts — you’re right, it does start in qualifying. … Qualifying will be important, because of that first stage and the points that go with everything. I think you’re going to have to score points. I think Christopher Bell is pretty safe, but I think Denny Hamlin’s point situation, I think he could, I don’t really know. I think they could go there and dominate. I think they could go there and be mediocre. None of it would surprise me.

“If he went and laid an egg or if he went and dominated the race, neither one would surprise me at this particular point. So, I think it’s a virtual crapshoot as to who’s going to hit it.”

Even though Harvick believes Hamlin could point his way in via an unlikely result, the most likely scenario is the veteran having to win, and that’s a grim outlook for the No. 11 Toyota wheelman, according to the former Cup Series champion.

“I’m going to be honest, I just — I think unless he goes out and wins the race and dominates, I just don’t think that — that he’s going to — Denny, will make it,” Harvick added. “I just think he’s going to have a hard time making it. I mean, if it works out, my pick works out. My initial gut reaction was right. But man, there hasn’t been — up until Homestead, there hasn’t been a race in the Round of 8 races that we’ve seen, that I’ve said, ‘Denny Hamlin is going to go win the championship,’ that’s screamed, ‘I’m going to go win this championship,’ until we got to Homestead.

“He was in the mix and around and leading laps and being aggressive and his pit crew was on it and everything was going good. That’s the first time that we’ve seen it in those 8 races.”

Alas, Denny Hamlin will have to surprise a number of his peers if he’s to capture the victory at Martinsville and make it to the Championship 4. He hasn’t won at the track since 2015, but there’s a possibility he gets the job done every time he returns to his home state.