Long Beach State vs. Arizona odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

The No. 2 seed Arizona Wildcats and the No. 15 seed Long Beach State 49ers are preparing to play their first-round matchup in the upcoming 2024 NCAA Tournament on Thursday afternoon. The Wildcats come into the game with one of the most athletic and talented rosters in the country. They’ve been ranked in the Top 10 for much of the 2023-2024 college basketball season.

Arizona will be looking to redeem themselves for their previous disappointments in March Madness. In 2023, the second-seeded Wildcats were ousted by the 15th-seeded Princeton Tigers, 59-55. Arizona became the only team in NCAA Tournament history to lose to a 15-seed twice as the No. 2 seed.

The Wildcats had an excellent regular season (25-8 overall record), but it was certainly full of ups and downs. They thrashed UCLA 88-65 to clinch the final Pac-12 regular season crown. Coming into the NCAA Tournament, Arizona has struggled as of late, losing two of their last three games (USC 78-65) and (Oregon 67-59). The loss to the Trojans was at the end of their regular season. And their loss to Oregon came in the Pac-12 Tournament Semifinals.

The Long Beach State 49ers finished with a 21-14 overall record in the regular season and a 10-10 record in the Big West. They won their conference tournament championship to punch their tickets to the big dance for the first time since 2012. Their head coach, Dan Monson was let go by the school a few weeks ago, but is still enjoying his team’s magical run to March Madness.

Both teams will be battling it out in the West Region of the bracket, with the winner advancing to play the winner of the Dayton vs. Nevada matchup in the Round of 32.

Odds for Long Beach State vs. Arizona

The Arizona Wildcats come into the contest as the heavy favorites. They’re currently favored by 19.5 points, according to Fanduel. Arizona is listed as -4000 for the money line. And the over/under is currently set at 163.5 total points.

Arizona enters the game as one of the highest scoring teams in all of college basketball (87.9 points per game). That currently ranks them third in the nation in that stat category. Long Beach State averages 77.7 points per game–ranking them 80th in the country.

Final score predictions for Long Beach State vs. Arizona

BPI Predicted winner: Arizona Wildcats
BPI Predicted point differential: 27.1
BPI Win probability (for Arizona): 97.7
BPI Matchup Quality: 67.7

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with what Vegas thinks about what to expect from this game. As a matter of fact, the BPI even favors the Wildcats more heavily coming into this matchup. BPI is projecting a 27.1-point differential in Arizona’s favor. It also gives the Wildcats a 97.7 percent chance of winning this game over the 49ers.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 67.7, which is the third worst score of all the NCAA Tournament games on Thursday, March 21st. The only two games with a worse quality score are Tennessee vs. Saint Peter’s (60.3) and North Carolina vs. Wagner (55.6).

KenPom Predicted final score: Arizona 91, Long Beach State 71
KenPom Win probability (for Arizona): 96 percent

KenPom is another predictive metrics system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Arizona and Long Beach State, KenPom agrees with the BPI and Vegas, projecting the Wildcats to win by 20 points.

KenPom also agrees with BPI, giving Arizona a 96% chance to win the game on Thursday.

How to watch Long Beach State vs. Arizona

Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS (actual channel), Prime Video (streaming)
Location: Delta Center–Salt Lake City, Utah

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

Long Beach State and Arizona are set to tip off at 2:00 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on TBS and will be streamed on Amazon Prime Video. It will be played at a neutral site in Salt Lake City, Utah. The first-round contest will be played in the Delta Center, which is home to the NBA’s Utah Jazz.