Louisville vs. Kentucky odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch

Louisville travels to Lexington to take on Kentucky on Saturday to write another chapter in the two teams’ storied rivalry.

Both teams will feature first-year head coaches in Pat Kelsey and Mark Pope — and both have had early success in their respective programs in the non-conference slate of the season.

As both coaches breathe new life into their respective programs, only one can emerge victorious in their first clash against each other as Louisville and Kentucky head coach.

Odds for Louisville vs. Kentucky

Entering Saturday’s matchup, Kentucky (-580) has emerged as a 10.5-point favorite over the Cardinals (+420) at home. The over/under is set at 159.5 points.

Final score predictions for Louisville vs. Kentucky

BPI Predicted winner: Kentucky
BPI Predicted point differential: 11.8
BPI Win probability (for Kentucky): 86.8%
BPI Matchup Quality: 79.0

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 11.8 points in Kentucky’s favor. It also gives the Wildcats an 86.8 percent chance to win the game over the Cardinals.

KenPom Predicted final score: Kentucky 83, Louisville 72
KenPom Win probability (for Kentucky): 75 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Kentucky and Louisville, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Cardinals to lose by double-digits.

How to watch Louisville vs. Kentucky

Time: 5:15 p.m. ET – Saturday, Dec. 14
Channel: ESPN, Fubo TV (Streaming)
Location: Rupp Arena – Lexington, KY

As both coaches prepare their teams for what is largely most players first matchup in the Kentucky-Louisville rivalry, it’s clear that both coaches understand the task at hand.

Upon his arrival at Louisville, Kelsey said that he had to rid his closet of everything blue, while Pope knows all too well what it’s like to match up against the Cardinals having played them twice during his playing days. He went 1-1 in those games.

However, the lone win was a blowout victory — inside Rupp Arena. He’ll look to coach his Wildcats to a similar victory on Saturday.

Of course, Kelsey’s group isn’t the same team that Kentucky has beaten by an average of 21 points over the past two seasons. The Cardinals have impressive wins against Indiana and West Virginia already this season, and a win over a top-five-ranked UK in Rupp Arena would be the signature win of Kelsey’s first season at Louisville.

Kentucky leads the all-time series 39-17 and has won five of the last six meetings vs. the Cardinals.