Matt Miller analyzes quarterback class for 2024 NFL Draft

This year’s NFL Draft will be top-loaded with elite quarterbacks. And one main question that’ll be asked between now and late April is whether this year’s class also will be historic.

Will there be six first-round selections, like the class of NFL quarterbacks in 1983? The six of 1983 included future Pro Football Hall of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino who were selected within the first 27 picks. That’s a nice NFL Draft first round.

ESPN Draft Analyst Matt Miller thinks the class of 224 will fall one below the record.

“I don’t think we’ll see six,” Miller told College GameDay podcast. “I think there are six quarterbacks who can be drafted in the top 50.”

Now for some perspective on the number. The NFL released its list of scouting combine invites earlier Tuesday. There are 14 quarterbacks on the list. If the prediction of five to six quarterbacks is anywhere near accurate means that between 35 and 42 percent of the quarterback participants in Indianapolis are going to be first rounders.

There are 4 locks for first round of NFL Draft

There’s a consensus on the top four, although there may be some wiggle room in the order. USC’s Caleb Williams is atop the draft board, followed by North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy slides in at No. 4 in the majority of the NFL Draft projections.

The wildcards for five and six are Washington’s Michael Penix and Oregon’s Bo Nix. Miller says that Penix is “on the fringe” for two reasons. He has a history of injury issues, which is why he played six years of college football. And his struggles against Michigan in the national title game are the last plays anyone will remember of him.

Penix, Nix are draft wildcards for first round

Miller compared Penix’s evaluation to what happened with C.J. Stroud, but with a twist. Stroud, the No. 2 pick of last year’s NFL Draft, dazzled scouts with his performance against Georgia in last year’s semifinals. He soared up the draft boards because of it.

“Michael Penix kind of has the opposite problem,” Miller said. “The worst game of his two-year career … that lasting impression. All the question marks you really had with his tape I think were verified by that game.”

Miller indicates the fifth quarterback would be Nix, who like Penix was a Heisman finalist.

“Bo Nix has a lot of fans in NFL scouting circles,” Miller said. “He could be that guy who does get pushed up.”