Mel Kiper Jr., Field Yates explain why draft stock has fallen on WR Luther Burden III

Missouri WR Luther Burden III has slid down on draft boards with there now being a real chance he doesn’t hear his name until day two.

Mel Kiper Jr. and Field Yates discussed Burden’s stock on ‘First Draft’ on Monday with Kiper having him at No. 3 behind Colorado’s Travis Hunter and Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan. With that, he said, as of today, Burden III isn’t a guaranteed pick in the first round of the draft.

“No,” Kiper Jr. said. “No, he is not (a lock to go in the first round anymore).”

That’s because of the drop-off that Burden III had from his sophomore season to his junior one. He posted fewer receptions and touchdowns along with nearly half of the receiving yardage.

“Luther Burden III is a wide receiver, going into this year, based on what he had done the previous season with 86 catches, 14-yard average, and nine touchdowns? He was the guy. He was the guy that people couldn’t handle. So, you expected this year for an improvement to basically happen and, all of a sudden, Luther Burden III is a top-ten pick in the NFL Draft,” Kiper Jr. explained. “Didn’t happen. He was quiet in some of those games. Theo Wease Jr. was the guy they went to.”

Yates agreed based on what he has heard around the league about Burden III. They too are trying to figure out what happened with his stats between the two years, especially since it wasn’t his circumstances considering he stayed on the same team and had the same quarterback.

“Here is where I think the NFL is at right now with Luther Burden, at least based off talking to people that have scouted him closely. What changed for Luther Burden that led to a dramatic downshift in production from 2023 to 2024?” asked Yates. “We see this happen when guys lose their quarterback. Wasn’t the case!…The explosion was not nearly as impressive this year as it was the year prior. The run after catch stuff was not even close to the same area in 2024 as it was in 2023. Scouts have been trying to figure out why. What happened? It’s why, and we talked about this weeks ago, these next two months are more important for Luther Burden III than maybe any other wide receiver in this class.”

Burden III had 86 catches for 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns as a sophomore in ’23. That had him ninth in yardage and tied for tenth in catches nationally while being second in catches and third in yardage and scores in the SEC as a selection as First Team All-SEC. However, as a junior in ’24, Burden III had only 61 receptions for 676 yards and six scores. That still led Mizzou in catches and touchdowns but was second to Wease Jr. in yardage by 208.

If you swapped the two years, Burden III looked like he’d be progressing. The regression, though, has him falling from the first round and potentially behind several other receivers with the combine this week and the draft being two months away.

“For Luther Burden III? To answer the question – if he goes in the first, is Pittsburgh a possibility? Washington Commanders would be a possibility in the late first. If not, he drops into the second round,” Kiper Jr. said. “That’s one of those guys right now you say, okay, with Emeka Egbuka soaring and another receiver jumping up there as well, Luther Burden III has dropped back a bit. Does that mean it’s going to remain that way until late April? Who knows.”

One franchise could still end up taking Burden III later on in the first round on Thursday. Still, with what they know, Kiper Jr. and Yates are expecting him to not go until some selection on Friday.

“Let’s face it. There’s a lot to like about Luther Burden III – from what happened in 2023, the glimpses this year. So, one team loves him? He still goes in the first round. But, right now, the consensus of the calls I made is early to mid-second round,” Kiper Jr. said.

“I’m getting the same vibe right now – maybe late first for Luther Burden III,” said Yates. “Based off what he put on tape this year, and based off some of the questions that scouts have right now? He’s not a lock to go in the first round.”