Michigan State vs. UNC odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

Two blue-blood programs will meet in the Round of 32 in the West Region tomorrow when No. 1 North Carolina and No. 9 Michigan State play in Charlotte. Either Hubert Davis or Tom Izzo will be getting their program to another Sweet 16 while the other’s season will come to an end in the Queen City.

The Tar Heels (28-7) are the top overall seed in the region and will play the Spartans in their home state. They opened their appearance for March Madness with a 90-62 win over their No. 16 seed in Wagner. R.J. Davis went for 22 points while Armando Bacot (20 and 15) and Jae’Lyn Withers (16 and 10) each put up a double-doubles. That trio combined to shoot 60.6% in the 28-point win over the Seahawks.

Earlier in the day, the Spartans (20-15) advanced in their No. 8-No. 9 matchup against Mississippi State. On offense, they shot 50% from the field and 43.5% from three as Tyson Walker (19), Jaden Akins (15), and Malik Hall (10) all finished in double-figures. Then, defensively, they held the Bulldogs to below 40% shooting overall and under 25% from distance.

Here’s how the sportbooks and predictions are now leaning in this second-round game.

Odds for Michigan State vs. North Carolina

Vegas has North Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite (-110) according to FanDuel. That has Michigan State close as just over a one-possession underdog with a moneyline at odds of +138.

As for the total, the number is at 140.5 at -110 for both the over and the under. The Tar Heels went over in their opener with 152 points while the Spartans were under in their’s with 120.

Final score predictions for Michigan State vs. North Carlina

BPI predicted winner: North Carolina
BPI win probability: 63.6%

ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index) is leaning toward UNC in the Round of 32 against Michigan State. It’s not too heavy of a lean, though, at a win probability of 63.6%.

As of now, there isn’t a predicted point differential of matchup quality rating for the contest.

KenPom Predicted final score: North Carolina 72, Michigan State 69
KenPom Win probability (for North Carolina): 59%

Another prediction at KenPom is also going with North Carolina in this game of the NCAA Tournament.

Still, like the other metrics, it’s not far off for Michigan State. KenPom’s prediction has it only being a three-point game with a probability of 59%.

How to watch Michigan State vs. North Carolina

Time: March 23rd at 5:30 p.m. EST
Channel: CBS, Prime Video (streaming)
Location: Spectrum Center – Charlotte, North Carolina

North Carolina is a No. 1 seed for a reason. They showed it all season long, especially with winning the Atlantic Coast Conference, and evidenced it with how they handled their business in their first game in the bracket. With that said, Michigan State is just one of those teams that you don’t want to come across in March, which is shown based on the respect that they’re getting even as an underdog.

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

That all should come together to make a classic matchup between them for a spot in Los Angeles in the the Sweet 16 next week.