Michigan State vs. Mississippi State odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

Michigan State will match up against Mississippi State on Thursday afternoon in what will be the first of 16 games of NCAA Tournament opening day action.

The Bulldogs (21-13) head into the first round having lost to eventual SEC Tournament champion Auburn in the semifinals last week. Meanwhile, the Spartans were sent home after meeting Purdue in the quarterfinals. In both cases, either game could have tilted in these two team’s favor.

Now, they match up to determine who will face 1-seed North Carolina and 16-seed Wagner.

Odds for Mississippi State vs. Michigan State

Coming into the game, Michigan State is a 1.5-point favorite over Mississippi State, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Spartans are currently listed at -113 for the money line as of Wednesday evening, while the Bulldogs are sitting at -106.

The point total for the game is set at 130.5 points.

Final score predictions for Mississippi State vs. Michigan State

BPI Predicted winner: Michigan State
BPI Predicted point differential: 2.7
BPI Win probability (for Michigan State): 60.8 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 91.6

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 2.7 points in Michigan State’s favor. It also gives the Spartans a 60.8 percent chance to win the game over the Bulldogs.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 91.6, which ranks No. 1 in quality scores predicted for the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Michigan State 67, Mississippi State 66
KenPom Win probability (for Michigan State): 55 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For Thursday’s game between Michigan State and Mississippi State, KenPom agrees with Vegas’ decision to have the Spartans edge past the Bulldogs in their first-round matchup.

How to watch Mississippi State vs. Michigan State

Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS, Prime Video (streaming)
Location: Spectrum Center — Charlotte, NC

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

The opening tip between the Bulldogs and Spartans is scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET and will air live on CBS from the Spectrum Center. It is also going to be available to fans on streaming through Prime Video.