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Mississippi State vs. Missouri odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch SEC Tournament

On3 imageby:Dan Morrison03/13/25

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Tony Perkins, Missouri. Dellquan Warren, Mississippi State
Tony Perkins, Missouri. Dellquan Warren, Mississippi State - © Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

It was a fantastic season for basketball teams in the SEC. Now, in the SEC Tournament, all eyes are on the conference to see who comes out of the bracket alive. For round two, that’s going to include an interesting game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Missouri Tigers.

This is the second time these two teams are going to meet this season. In their first matchup, it was a comfortable 88-61 win for the Tigers. However, this time, the game is expected to be much closer. To get to this point, Mississippi State first had to play LSU in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. In the end, it was a 91-62 win. Missouri, meanwhile, had a bye in round one.

Ahead of this key SEC Tournament game, here is a look at the odds, current betting lines, and win probability for Mississippi State vs. Missouri. Along with that, here is how to watch the game.

Odds for Mississippi State vs. Missouri

Coming into the game, Missouri is a 3.5-point favorite over Mississippi State, per FanDuel. The Tigers are also currently listed at -154 for the moneyline. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are sitting at +128 for this game.

The point total for the game is currently set at 155.5 points. This season, the Bulldogs and Tigers played once this season at the start of February. That game ended up finishing with a final point total of 149 points scored.

Final score predictions for Mississippi State vs. Missouri

BPI Predicted winner: Tigers
BPI Predicted point differential: 0.1 point
BPI Win probability (for Tigers): 50.6 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 85.9

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. Like Vegas, BPI has Missouri as the favorite. However, that is only by a small margin. BPI is projecting a point differential of 0.1 points in Missouri’s favor. It also gives the Tigers a 50.6 percent chance to win the game.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 85.9. That is the fifth-highest quality score of the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Missouri 81, Mississippi State 78
KenPom Win probability (for Tigers): 59 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between the Tigers and Bulldogs, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting that Missouri is going to win the game. It gives a point differential closer to Vegas, though. In this case, that’s by three points. Notably, it is also projecting 159 total points are scored.

How to watch Mississippi State vs. Missouri

Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Channel: SECN
Location: Nashville, TN

Mississippi State and Missouri are scheduled to tip off at 7:00 p.m. EST. However, the game is dependent on what time the earlier afternoon games end, and this one will begin about 25 minutes after the previous SEC Tournament game of the day ends.

As part of the SEC Tournament, the game will be at a neutral site at Bridgestone Arena in downtown Nashville. For fans who can’t make it to Tennessee, the game can be watched on SECN.