Missouri vs. Florida odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch SEC Tournament

No. 4 Florida and No. 21 Missouri tip off at 7 pm ET Friday in the third of four quarterfinal matchups on the third day of the 2025 SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. It’s a rematch opportunity for the second-seeded Gators after the visiting Tigers upset them, 83-82, in their only other meeting this season on Jan. 14 in Gainesville.

Seventh-seeded Missouri (22-10, 10-8 SEC) is riding high after dispatching No 10 seeded Mississippi State, 85-73, in the second round Thursday. Meanwhile, Florida (27-4, 14-14 SEC) will play its first game of the tournament after earning a double-bye as a Top 4 seed.

As ranked teams, both the Gators and Tigers have likely already locked up NCAA Tournament bids regardless of what takes place Friday night, with Florida in prime position to earn a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday, according to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi. Of course, a loss to Missouri on Friday could certainly change things and open the door for a current No. 2 seed such as fellow SEC powers Alabama and Tennessee to jump the Gators should they keep winning in Nashville. Lunardi currently projects Missouri as a No. 7 sed in the South Regional bracket.

Odds for Florida vs. Missouri

Per the latest odds on FanDuel, the Gators are a 8.5-point favorite (-10) over Missouri this afternoon. FanDuel also has Florida at (+380) on the moneyline and an over-under total for the game set at 162.5.

As FanDuel’s O/U would indicate, both teams are among the nation’s highest-scoring offenses and Friday afternoon should be no different.

Final score predictions for Florida vs. Missouri

BPI Predicted Winner: Florida
BPI Predicted Point Differential: 6.2
BPI Win Probability (for Tennessee): 72.9%
BPI Matchup Quality: 88.8

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) expects the Gators will ultimately come out on top in this one, and should win by multiple possession with a near 73-percent win probability.

As for matchup quality, this is the eighth-best game on Friday’s college basketball slate of games, and is the day’s second-best option in the SEC Tournament, behind only No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 6 Kentucky, which is the day’s second-best game overall according to ESPN’s BPI.

KenPom Predicted Final Score: Florida 84, Missouri 78
KenPom Win Probability (for Florida): 73%

KenPom‘s projection is right on par with ESPN’s BPI, even down to the six-point scoring differential, and believes FanDuel’s O/U odds are dead-on with a similar 162 point total.

How to watch Florida vs. Missouri

Time: 7 pm EST, 6 pm CT
Channel: SEC Network
Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, Tennessee)

As mentioned earlier, since both Florida and Missouri are all-but-guaranteed NCAA Tournament bids given their impressive resumes, the only real implications for Friday’s SEC Tournament matchup is their potential seeding in March Madness. The Gators can go a long way in locking up the fourth and final No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament with a win over the Tigers, while Missouri would certainly relish the opportunity to play spoiler and potentially improve their own seeding opportunity on Selection Sunday.