NASCAR insiders evaluate Denny Hamlin's disappointing afternoon at Atlanta

Denny Hamlin had a whirlwind weekend at Atlanta, and it’s moved him into a precarious position moving forward in the Round of 16.

After finishing P24 and accumulating zero stage points, Hamlin is only two points above the cut-line for the Round of 12. On the latest episode of The Teardown, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi of The Athletic tried to make sense of Hamlin’s strategy over the weekend, and where he goes from here.

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“Another playoff driver getting caught up in that was Denny Hamlin,” Gluck stated. “He ended up finishing P24. He probably wasn’t going to finish much better than that anyway, because he was running in the back all day. I think right before that restart, maybe he was up to P22 or something like that. So like, let’s back up. He starts the weekend, and he hears like, a pop in qualifying, and he qualifies last, like, way off the pace, and it turns out there was a plug wire loose, or something going on with this engine, so they changed that. Before the race, they also changed [Martin] Truex and Ty Gibbs, they all had to fall to the back.

“Even once the race started, Truex was able to move up through the field, Gibbs was able to move up through the field. Denny kind of didn’t, like, when the others had started to advance, and then, I think, it was the very first caution, they pit after the leaders had pitted, so that they’re trying to hang in the back. So it turned out, you know, sort of this intentional strategy, to be like, ‘Alright, we’re just not going to risk getting caught up in something. We’re just going to, you know, sort of do a layup here, and just take what we can get.’ I think he said he wanted to get like, 20 points out of it.

“Ultimately, again, he gets wrecked on the last lap. So, not what he had in mind. He also said that he was thinking that there was going to be a big one, and that would have allowed him to gain more positions. But it didn’t work out. It just didn’t work out. But despite all that, he’s still above the cut line.”

With Watkins Glen and Bristol on the horizon, Bianchi believes Hamlin is in a solid spot, even though he’s one mistake from being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

“Still +2. Going to a road course, where he’s very good on road courses now. Going to Bristol, where he’s won the last three on the pavement, or on the concrete there, I think,” Bianchi added. “… It is a tire where it favors the veterans, and favors the guys who saved tires. I mean, that’s Hamlin’s wheelhouse. There’s few, if anyone, better than that.

“I feel really good though. I mean, I know it sounds silly for a guy who’s +2, I mean, you obviously don’t know what’s gonna happen mechanically or whatever else, but this could have gone a lot worse for him.”

It’ll be up to Denny Hamlin to change his fate and avoid elimination in the Round of 16. That would be a disastrous scenario, as Hamlin would’ve squandered a tremendous regular season, and he only has so many shots at winning his first Cup Series title left in his career.