NASCAR New Hampshire Predictions: Winner, complete projected order of finish for entire field

This Sunday’s USA TODAY 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway represents the midway point of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season.

As we sit here today, six playoff spots are up for grabs with 10 drivers having found their way to Victory Lane through the first 17 races. New Hampshire is another opportunity for a first-time winner to break through, just as Ryan Blaney did last Sunday at Iowa. Racing Insights, however, doesn’t see an 11th playoff spot getting clinched in Loudon.

The advanced metrics, instead, point to a driver getting his fourth win of the season. According to Racing Insights, Denny Hamlin will take the checkered flag at New Hampshire.

Racing Insights uses an “advanced statistical formula that includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.”

1) Denny Hamlin

Hamlin has uncharacteristically had back-to-back duds at Sonoma and Iowa, respectively. He went a lap down early at Iowa and later found himself involved in the Lap 219 wreck. He finished P24 following a DNF the week prior at Sonoma.

Despite the recent form, Hamlin is a three-time winner this season and had five consecutive top 5s before Sonoma. He will undoubtedly be a trendy pick this Sunday as he’s gotten to Victory Lane three times in Loudon and has a 9.4 average finish across 30 starts.

2) Ryan Blaney

Blaney, the reigning Cup Series champion, is coming off his first victory of the season. With the win, he moved up five spots in the points standings, now sitting in the seventh position. Inconsistent this season, Blaney has tallied back-to-back top 10s for the first time since picking up three in a row at Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix.

Blaney has never won at New Hampshire. In 11 career starts, his best finish is fourth back in 2019.

3) Martin Truex Jr.

Truex enters Sunday’s race riding a five-race streak of placing outside the top-10 but in all likelihood, that streak is coming to an end at New Hampshire. In the Next Gen era, Truex has won all four stages and led 426 out of 602 laps.

He has finished no worse than 12th in his last nine starts dating back to 2016 and took the checkered flag this past season. Look for him to be in competition for his first win of the campaign and to clinch a playoff spot in his final full-time season in the Cup Series.

4) Chase Elliott

For the first time since 2022, Elliott sits atop the points standings. Elliott has been a points machine of late, recording eight top 10s in his last 11 starts, finishing no worse than 15th during that stretch.

New Hampshire is far from one of his best tracks, as he has finished outside the top-10 in seven of his 10 starts at the track. He did, however, finish P2 in 2022.

5) William Byron

Byron hasn’t been nearly as strong since winning three of the first eight races of the season, but now has two top 5s in his last four starts. That includes a P2 finish this past Sunday at Iowa.

Byron has struggled during his career at the 1.058-mile track. In six starts, his best finish is 11th in 2020 and ’22.

Racing Insights’ Predictions for USA TODAY 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Projected Finish	Car No.	Driver
6	5	Kyle Larson
7	20	Christopher Bell
8	22	Joey Logano
9	6	Brad Keselowski
10	45	Tyler Reddick
11	1	Ross Chastain
12	23	Bubba Wallace
13	14	Chase Briscoe
14	48	Alex Bowman
15	8	Kyle Busch
16	17	Chris Buescher
17	99	Daniel Suárez
18	54	Ty Gibbs
19	43	Erik Jones
20	34	Michael McDowell
21	2	Austin Cindric
22	3	Austin Dillon
23	4	Josh Berry
24	41	Ryan Preece
25	51	Justin Haley
26	10	Noah Gragson
27	77	Carson Hocevar
28	38	Todd Gilliland
29	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
30	21	Harrison Burton
31	7	Corey LaJoie
32	31	Daniel Hemric
33	16	Ty Dillon
34	42	John Hunter Nemechek
35	71	Zane Smith
36	15	Kaz Grala