NASCAR Playoff Bubble Battle: Comparing Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain at Darlington
Heading into the regular season finale, three drivers are fighting on the bubble for one spot in the NASCAR Playoffs. Chris Buescher has a 21-point cushion, but Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain are looking to have big days at Darlington to flip that around.
This season, Darlington played a big role in the playoff picture. Brad Keselowski broke his winless streak and punched his ticket to the postseason. Now, his driver and teammate, Chris Buescher is hoping to defend his spot in the NASCAR Playoffs.
Let’s take a look at the history these drivers have at The Lady in Black, look at recent results, and try to find out who will have the edge on Sunday night. One of these drivers is likely going playoff racing.
Chris Buescher at Darlington
The last time the NASCAR Cup Series raced at Darlington, Chris Buescher had a shot to win until late contact from Tyler Reddick. With nine laps to go, Buescher had to pit and his team owner and teammate, Keselowski, won. P30 for Buescher.
But this is not necessarily typical for Buescher. In the Southern 500 last season, he finished P3. There are some concerns, though.
In the Next Gen era, Buescher has an average start of 16.6 at Darlington. He has an average finish of 17. Those are numbers that, without stage points, could put him in danger of losing his lead on the cutline.
One silver lining: Despite the poor finish this season, Chris Buescher managed to stay within 20 points of Bubba Wallace at the end of the race thanks to strong stage finishes. 33 to 15 points. So there is a world where Buescher does poorly but manages to hang on by a few points.
The 17 team is coming off of back-to-back top-10 finishes, but has struggled in the summer.
Bubba Wallace looking to jump into NASCAR Playoffs
The 23 team is hoping that that they are able to flip the script at Darlington. Harrison Burton’s win pushed Bubba Wallace out of the NASCAR Playoff picture.
To his credit, Wallace has been really strong at Darlington in the Next Gen era. An average start of 10.8. His average finish is 11. That finishing average is weighed down by a P27 DNF in 2022. He has an average finish of 7.0 in the Next Gen era without that finish, four straight top-10s.
Bubba Wallace has to unload much like he did at Michigan. A super fast car that can drive through the field even when passing isn’t ideal. If he wants to make the NASCAR Playoffs, Wallace will have to have a very strong race.
Top-5 in both stages and finishing in the top-5 overall will be what it takes to point in. And that is only if Chris Buescher has a bad race or a new winner doesn’t emerge. The other way to make it is to just take the checkered flag for him and win the whole dang thing.
Ross Chastain – Darlington Wildcard
If there was ever a wildcard in the field, it has to be Ross Chastain, right? The Trackhouse Racing driver has given us some of the most exhilarating moments in the Next Gen era. His win at COTA, taking out AJ Allmendinger and Alex Bowman in one move. The Hail Melon, goes without saying at this point.
Darlington is a tricky one for Chastain. He has fallen victim to a wreck in two of his five races in the Next Gen era. However, there have been bright spots. The 2023 Southern 500 was a great race for Chastain who finished P5.
But when you look at his averages, it is not so great. An average start of 12.2 and average finish of 19.0, there is a discrepancy here. Even if we take out the DNFs, Chastain’s average finish is 12.0. It’s solid, but not great.
Ross Chastain has to tap into that wildcard mentality. Whatever possessed him to put his car into the wall at Martinsville in fifth gear and ride it around has to take over at Darlington. He has a chance of crashing out of the race, but if he isn’t aggressive, he won’t have a chance to advance whatsoever.
Chastain does not have much momentum. An average finish of 19.75 since New Hampshire and finishes of P25 and P12 in the last two races does not bode well for the No. 1 team.
Who takes final NASCAR Playoff spot?
Looking at these three drivers, if I had to pick one of them to advance, it would be Chris Buescher. 21 points is a lot to overcome in one race. It is not impossible, all it takes is an early wreck. With it being the regular season finale, early wrecks are very possible.
If I had to pick a driver who will have the best finish, it would be Bubba Wallace. He has been more consistent at Darlington than both Buescher and Chastain. But if he is not able to qualify well and earn stage points, he has a slim chance of making it on points alone. A win is more than likely how he makes the NASCAR Playoff.
As for Ross Chastain, he is that dark horse. You don’t expect him to be able to overcome both Buescher and Wallace, but the Melon Man is always full of surprises.