NASCAR Playoffs: Predicting winners and losers in the Round of 16

The NASCAR Playoffs are upon us as the Cup Series heads to Darlington for the first race of the Round of 16. From there, the postseason moves on to Kansas and then Bristol for the finale ahead of the Round of 12. Wins get you into the next round, otherwise you better hope you have enough points to make it by.

While the points system can get a little confusing at times, we don’t have to worry about the points reset here. Let’s just focus on what we have in front of us. 16 drivers will head into Darlington with hopes of making it to the Round of 12 somehow, someway over the next three weeks.

We know what Las Vegas has to say, but how will this actually play out in the next few weeks of the NASCAR Playoffs? Let’s get into it.

Round One – Darlington

Cook Out Southern 500 – Darlington Raceway
Martin Truex Jr. is the favorite for this race. He’s won three races this season and has experience winning at The Lady in Black. However, Denny Hamlin has four wins at The Lady in Black, leading all active drivers. A year ago, Erik Jones played spoiler and was able to win this race as a non-playoff driver. The first of four races with non-playoff driver wins.

As far as the favorites go, it’s hard to pick between a guy like Truex and one like William Byron. If we know anything, it is that Truex will show if he has winning speed early on in practice and/or qualifying. No matter what, I think a veteran driver picks up the win.

Prediction: This one comes down to Truex Jr. and, surprisingly, Brad Keselowski. Byron won at Watkins Glen but has been relatively quiet otherwise in recent weeks. He was P4 earlier this season and RFK Racing has momentum. My longshot to win would be Kevin Harvick. Ford had five in the top-10 at that previous race this season.

NASCAR Playoffs Round 2 – Kansas

Hollywood Casino 400 – Kansas Speedway
Another intermediate track and perhaps the best race of the season earlier this year. Kansas has a lot of expectations, especially with so much on the line. Hamlin moved Kyle Larson for this win with a little aero-push. Can he go back-to-back?

Let’s not forget about last year’s winner, Bubba Wallace. He took the victory in the No. 45 racing in place of Kurt Busch in the owner’s championship. This win was monumental for Wallace. Now he’s in the playoffs and had another top-5 finish here earlier this season.

Wallace is the most likely to win a race out of the bottom four drivers coming into the NASCAR Playoffs Round of 16. Kansas is obviously his best chance. Let’s not forget that Chase Elliott is still looking for a win this season, even if he’s out of the playoffs.

Prediction: I don’t see anyone but a Toyota or a Hendrick Chevy winning this race. Larson and Elliott will both be good here, I believe. I’m not sure if the No. 23 team can get it done again in this race this season. Limit mistakes, and anything is possible, though. Austin Dillon is my outside pick to win here, he was P10 in the spring.

Final Round – Bristol Night Race

Bass Pro Shops Night Race – Bristol Motor Speedway
This is a great race to end the first round. Bristol, The Last Great Colosseum, is going to give us a thriller under the lights. Let’s not forget the foreshadowing we had for 2023 when Chris Buescher won this race. I expect RFK to be out with some speed on the World’s Fastest Half-Mile.

Defending the win at Bristol will be tough. I think this is a race that Kyle Busch can come out and be really good at. He’s had eight wins and a ton of top-5s and top-10s at the track. In his last two years with JGR, he wasn’t as great in this race as he had been in the past. That could easily change, though.

Prediction: If there is one short track this Next Gen car can give a good show at, it has to be Bristol under the lights, right? The final race in the Round of 16, I think this likely goes to Busch or an RFK car – I’m leaning toward Busch. Don’t sleep on Ricky Stenhouse Jr., though. He might steal one right before the cutoff into the Round of 12 and shake up the race for the championship. That is going to be a big upset if he manages to pull it off.

Drivers Eliminated: Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr.