NASCAR Playoffs: Projecting the Field of 16 ahead of Chicago

There are seven regular-season NASCAR Cup Series races to go until the start of the Playoffs. Who will race for the championship? The entire year is a race to get into the postseason and it is almost here.

This weekend is the Chicago Street Race. This is a very interesting week, with big implications for the NASCAR Playoffs. Had Shane van Gisbergen not been there, Justin Haley could have ended up as the winner, let’s not forget that.

The track, which will hopefully be dry this time around, will still be new for these drivers. Leading into the weekend there have been 11 individual winners on the season. Martin Truex Jr. has a ton of points and likely doesn’t need to win a race to make it.

NASCAR.com and Racing Insights give these drivers a 99% chance or better of making the Playoffs.

“Locked In” Drivers
Denny Hamlin
Kyle Larson
William Byron
Christopher Bell
Chase Elliott
Tyler Reddick
Brad Keselowski
Daniel Suárez
Ryan Blaney
Joey Logano
Austin Cindric
Martin Truex Jr.

Last Four In – Ross Chastain

Currently, Ross Chastain sits at 11th in the points, but he just fell two spots in the standings after Nashville. Racing Insights predicts that Chastain has an 89.07% chance to make the NASCAR Playoffs.

Without a win on the season, Chastain is searching for more in 2024. I do think he makes the postseason, regardless of a win or not.

Last Four In – Chris Buescher

Racing insights puts Chris Buescher at 87.76% chance of making the playoffs. Michigan and Richmond are coming up on the schedule, two races Buescher won a year ago.

RFK Racing wants both drivers in the playoffs again. They also want Buescher to join Brad Keselowski as a race winner this season.

Last Four In – Ty Gibbs

Despite being 10th in points, Ty Gibbs has a slightly lower chance of making the NASCAR Playoffs. Listed at 77.66%, Gibbs is expected to make it, but things could change.

Gibbs earned his first pole award of his career this season. Now he’s searching for a win. With a strong road course background, could Chicago be the weekend he gets it done?

NASCAR Playoffs Last Four In – Alex Bowman

Alex Bowman is the last among the Last Four In. Bowman has a 49.81% chance of making the NASCAR Playoffs. While he is 51 points up on the cutline, Bowman can be moved with one win.

Consistency has been there, but top-end speed has not for the 48 team. There is still time, but will they capitalize off of it or not?

First Four Out – Bubba Wallace

In points and in probability, Bubba Wallace is the first one out of the NASCAR Playoff picture. With races at Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington, there is time to win and make the postseason.

There is no doubt that this team took a step back this season. DNFs have been an issue, a lack of true speed has started to bite them in recent weeks. Like the others, there is still time, but it will likely take a win to make the Round of 16.

First Four Out -Kyle Busch

More than 100 points out of the cutline, Kyle Busch has just a 13.87% chance of making the postseason. If something can go wrong, it has gone wrong this season for Rowdy.

With no wins, a bad points situation, and no answers in sight, it will take a vintage Busch performance to get him to the NASCAR Playoffs.

First Four Out – Michael McDowell

Without the Indy Road Course on the schedule this season, Michael McDowell might have to put all of his eggs in the Daytona basket. McDowell has had strong runs, but not consistent enough.

Never say never, but McDowell has work to do. His points situation gives him an 11.81% chance of making the postseason, so don’t get your hopes up.

NASCAR Playoffs First Four Out – Todd Gilliland

Good for Todd Gilliland being on this list. Even though he likely won’t make the NASCAR Playoffs, just an 8.47% chance, he has improved in the last year.

Gilliland could sneak a win in at Daytona. Otherwise, I think this team is better off focusing on races on a week-by-week basis. Take it one at a time.