NASCAR Predictions for Michigan: Winner, predicted order of finish for entire field

The crew over at Racing Insights has predicted the winner and the order of finish for the entire field ahead of Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway.

With only two races remaining until the regular season will come to a close, wins are at a premium. Austin Dillon may have won last weekend’s race at Richmond, but his tactics left NASCAR no choice but to remove his automatic playoff qualifier reward for making it to Victory Lane. Now, the last four spots in the playoffs are as wide open as ever.

Prior to relaying their projections, Racing Insights explained their formula, utilizing an “advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results,” these are the results they’ve come to.

1) Denny Hamlin

Despite being wrecked coming to the checkered flag at Richmond on Sunday, Denny Hamlin still ended up the runner-up over the weekend. However, that didn’t do much to ease his troubles, as he’s been calling for Austin Dillon’s win to be taken away from him.

This weekend will mark Hamlin’s 34th race at Michigan. Over that time, he’s won at the track twice, but he’s run extremely well there overall, including not finishing below P12 since 2017 at the track.

2) Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson would’ve liked to welcome the Cup Series back to action the same way he left it, with a trip to Victory Lane. Nevertheless, the No. 5 wheelman wasn’t too disappointed with a solid P7 finish at Richmond.

When NASCAR returns to Michigan, it’ll be Larson’s 16th start at the track. He has 3 wins at Michigan, including winning three in a row back in 2016 and 2017.

3) Tyler Reddick

While Tyler Reddick wasn’t directly involved with Austin Dillon coming to the line at Richmond, he has a past with his former Richard Childress Racing teammate. After the race, Reddick was unimpressed with Dillon’s driving, but it wasn’t all bad, as the No. 45 wheelman came home P3.

Over the course of his career, Reddick has only raced at Michigan five times. However, it’s been a borderline disaster each time, with his best finish coming in 2020, when he came home P18.

4) Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney has been one of the more consistent wheelmen in the Cup Series this summer. He proved that once again at Richmond, as he brought his No. 12 Ford home P11 on the evening.

In 15 tries, Blaney has one win at Michigan. That came in 2021, so there’s reason to believe we could see the No. 12 in Victory Lane when the checkered flag waves on Sunday.

5) Christopher Bell

Christopher Bell ended up with a solid finish at Richmond after the two-week break for NASCAR. The Joe Gibbs Racing wheelman came home P6 on the evening.

While Bell has become a threat to win at almost every track, Michigan hasn’t been too kind to the No. 20 wheelman. Bell finished P13 there three times in five tries, which isn’t too shabby, but he’ll be looking for a top ten this time around.

NASCAR Predictions for Michigan — P6 through P36:

6) William Byron
7) Chase Elliott
8) Martin Truex Jr.
9) Brad Keselowski
10) Bubba Wallace
11) Chris Buescher
12) Ross Chastain
13) Ty Gibbs
14) Joey Logano
15) Alex Bowman
16) Daniel Suarez
17) Kyle Busch
18) Erik Jones
19) Michael McDowell
20) Josh Berry
21) Austin Cindric
22) Austin Dillon
23) Chase Briscoe
24) Noah Gragson
25) Carson Hocevar
26) Justin Haley
27) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
28) Corey LaJoie
29) Todd Gilliland
30) Ryan Preece
31) A.J. Allmendinger
32) John Hunter Nemechek
33) Zane Smith
34) Harrison Burton
35) Daniel Hemric
36) Cody Ware

As you can see, Racing Insights believes it’ll be Denny Hamlin getting his fourth win of the season, with Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney rounding out the podium. That’d be a nice bounce-back for Hamlin, after being wrecked by Austin Dillon coming to the line last weekend. We’ll see if the veteran can get it done.