NASCAR predictions: Phoenix winner, complete order of finish projections for Shriners Children's 500

A trip to the desert is on the docket for the NASCAR Cup Series this weekend. Phoenix Raceway will take center stage, as the Shriners Children’s 500 is next up on the schedule, and predictions are rolling in for the fourth race of the season. 

The real question entering Arizona surrounds Christopher Bell, and everyone is wondering if there’s any driver who can contend with the Joe Gibbs Racing phenom. He’s won back-to-back races, getting to Victory Lane in Atlanta and at COTA, and now he’s heading back to Phoenix, where he won last spring, as well. Three in a row is certainly on the table for him, as he’s on fire in 2025.

With that in mind, the crew over at Racing Insights, utilizing their advanced statistical formula including current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data, has arrived at a projected winner and full race results for Phoenix. Check out their prediction below, and see where your favorite driver might end up.

1) Christopher Bell

Christopher Bell is staking his claim as one of the top wheelmen in the entire NASCAR Cup Series. After his controversial win in Atlanta, the Joe Gibbs Racing star left no doubt in Austin, coming alive during the final laps to notch his second victory in as many races.

Could Bell make it three in a row? With a trip to Phoenix on the docket, a track where the 30-year-old won last March there’s certainly an opportunity for him to make a bit of history in the desert.

2) Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney has become known for his slow starts to the season, and COTA being the third race of the season was never a preferable option for the Team Penske star. It’s been a tough track for the former champion, and his P19 finish was evidence of that over the weekend.

Luckily for Blaney, Phoenix couldn’t come at a better time for him. He has seven straight top five finishes in the desert, but zero wins. He could break through and get the job done this time around. 

3) William Byron

William Byron has been the class of the field in 2025, along with Christopher Bell. The reigning, back-to-back Daytona 500 champion came up just short of winning at COTA for the second consecutive season, as he finished as the runner-up over the weekend in Austin. 

Perhaps he’ll match Bell with his second win of the season at Phoenix this weekend. The Hendrick Motorsports star always performs well at the track, and he won in the desert back in March of 2023.

4) Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson didn’t have a weekend to remember in Austin, and that’s been the theme of 2025 so far for the Hendrick Motorsports star. He entered the weekend as one of the favorites to win and give his season an early boost, but instead, he came home P32 when it was all said and done in Texas.

The good news for Larson is the schedule will be more than favorable for him in the coming weeks. It all starts with this weekend’s race at Phoenix, a track where Larson’s always among the top contenders, even if he’s only won there once, back in 2021. 

5) Joey Logano

It was an unremarkable showing for Joey Logano at COTA, after he had speed at both Daytona and Atlanta. The reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion started in P23 and ended up finishing P24. He’ll be happy to leave this trip to Austin in the past. 

With Phoenix Raceway on the schedule for this weekend, Logano has a major shot at turning his season around. Of course, he won the race and the championship last fall at the track, but he has four wins in total in Arizona. Perhaps No. 5 will come this Sunday afternoon. 

Phoenix NASCAR projections continued — P6 through P37:

6) Denny Hamlin
7) Chase Elliott
8) Chris Buescher
9) Ross Chastain
10) Tyler Reddick
11) Bubba Wallace
12) Brad Keselowski
13) Alex Bowman
14) Chase Briscoe
15) Daniel Suarez
16) Carson Hocevar
17) Josh Berry
18) Kyle Busch
19) Noah Gragson
20) Michael McDowell
21) Austin Dillon
22) Austin Cindric
23) Ryan Preece
24) Todd Gilliland
25) Ty Gibbs
26) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
27) AJ Allmendinger
28) Erik Jones
29) Cole Custer
30) Justin Haley
31) John Hunter Nemechek
32) Ty Dillon
33) Zane Smith
34) Riley Herbst
35) Cody Ware
36) Shane van Gisbergen
37) Katherine Legge

As you can tell, Racing Insights believes Christopher Bell will get the job done, and make it three in a row, and three out of four in 2025. Other strong contenders include Ryan Blaney and William Byron, and they’ll certainly have a shot when the green flag drops on Sunday in Arizona. What an event it should be at Phoenix Raceway.