NASCAR Predictions: Projecting winner, entire order of finish for Chicago Street Race

The NASCAR Cup Series will return to the streets of Chicago this weekend, with the Grant Park 165 on the docket for Sunday.

Last season, Chicago was the site of the coming out party for Shane van Gisbergen, as it pertains to the world of NASCAR. Since then, it’s been a whirlwind year for the New Zealander, and he’s returning to the Cup Series for another shot at a win in the Windy City this weekend.

Ahead of the Grant Park 165, the folks over at Racing Insights are using their algorithm to predict the finishing order. Using their “advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results,” here’s what they’ve come up with.

1) Chase Elliott

In the past, Chase Elliott has had some serious success in Nashville, but it wasn’t meant to be on Sunday afternoon. The No. 9 ended up finishing P18 on the afternoon, not exactly where the Hendrick Motorsports star wanted to end up in the Music City.

During last season’s trip to Chicago, Elliott was one of the lone Cup Series wheelmen who had something for Shane van Gisbergen, but it wasn’t meant to be. The No. 9 came home P3, so he’ll be looking to get to Victory Lane this time around.

2) Kyle Larson

Nobody had a more hectic afternoon in Nashville than Kyle Larson. After looking primed to win the race multiple times, Larson wrecked, ran out of fuel and somehow worked his way back up to a P8 finish, all in overtime of the Ally 400. 

With all the victories Larson has to his name, a win in Chicago would mean the world to the Hendrick superstar. He came home P4 in 2024, so there’s some merit for Larson getting to Victory Lane in the Grant Park 165 on Sunday.

3) Tyler Reddick

Tyler Reddick almost came out of nowhere to win in Nashville. He simply couldn’t get by Joey Logano after rocketing to the front in the fifth overtime, but the 23XI Racing wheelman can be satisfied with his podium finish in P3.

While Reddick started on the front row in Chicago in 2023, he finished P28 on the afternoon. The exciting wheelman will be hoping to fare much better than that in NASCAR’s return to the track in 2024.

4) Christopher Bell

An accident ended Christopher Bell’s afternoon early in Nashville, and ruined his bid for a fourth win in 2024. The No. 20 wheelman came home P36, a disappointing finish after his sweep last weekend in New Hampshire.

While Bell is a threat to win at any track, he didn’t have the best race in Chicago last season. The No. 20 finished P18, so he’ll have to do better than that if he’s to get back on track this weekend in the Grant Park 165, after a disappointing afternoon in Nashville.

5) Chris Buescher

Chris Buescher is still searching for his first win of 2024, but he’s come close, about as close as you can, on multiple occasions. At Nashville, he captured another top-five, and continued to accumulate points towards the good for the playoffs.

Still, the No. 17 won’t be comfortable until he locks himself into the dance. He’ll have a chance this weekend, and he’s one of the top road-course racers in the sport. Last season, he finished P10.

NASCAR Chicago Street Race Predictions — 6-40:

6) Michael McDowell
7) William Byron
8) Ty Gibbs
9) Shane van Gisbergen
10) Ross Chastain
11) Martin Truex Jr.
12) Denny Hamlin
13) Kyle Busch
14) Daniel Suarez
15) AJ Allmendinger
16) Ryan Blaney
17) Alex Bowman
18) Joey Logano
19) Austin Cindric
20) Brad Keselowski
21) Chase Briscoe
22) Justin Haley
23) Todd Gilliland
24) Ryan Preece
25) Corey LaJoie
26) Bubba Wallace
27) Carson Hocevar
28) Austin Dillon
29) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
30) Erik Jones
31) Zane Smith
32) Noah Gragson
33) Harrison Burton
34) John Hunter Nemechek
35) Josh Berry
36) Kaz Grala
37) Daniel Hemric
38) Josh Bilicki
39) Joey Hand
40) Austin Hill

As you can tell, the folks over at Racing Insights believe Chase Elliott will get the win in Chicago, something that’s sure to make a large contingent of NASCAR fans elated if it comes true. There’s some merit, as he came in third in 2023, so we’ll see if the No. 9 can get to Victory Lane on Sunday afternoon.