NASCAR Predictions: Projecting winner, entire order of finish of Brickyard 400

The Brickyard 400 is back on Sunday, as the NASCAR Cup Series will ditch the road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, in favor of the return of the legendary event in 2024.

With only three active drivers — Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson — in the field who have a victory in the Brickyard 400 on their resume, it’s anyone’s guess who will kiss the bricks in 2024. However, it’s an honor that everyone on the track would love to add to their resume this weekend.

Ahead of NASCAR’s return to the Brickyard 400, the crew over at Racing Insights, utilizing their “advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results,” have projected the entire finishing order for the race.

1) Denny Hamlin

After a bit of hard luck over the last month, Denny Hamlin returned to form in Pocono. He was the car to beat throughout the afternoon, and he looked headed towards back-to-back wins in Pennsylvania, but Ryan Blaney got the best of him.

Regardless, a P2 finish is nothing to snub your nose at. Now, with Indianapolis on the docket, a race Hamlin has never won, the perfect follow up would be kissing the bricks. We’ll see if he can add it to his list of accomplishments.

2) William Byron

The William Byron we saw at the onset of the 2024 campaign seems to be returning. The No. 24 captured another solid, top five finish in Pocono, as he came home P4 at the track Jeff Gordon had so much success at. 

Interestingly enough, another track Gordon dominated at is on the horizon, as Byron and company will move to Indianapolis on Sunday. Byron has raced their three times, and he does have a P4 finish in 2019 on his resume.

3) Ryan Blaney

Ryan Blaney’s rollercoaster 2024 campaign is beginning to find a peak, it seems. Over the last month and change, Blaney has two victories, after his win at Pocono Raceway over the weekend.

Moving forward to Indianapolis, Blaney has only one top ten at the track over six attempts. That was a P7 finish in 2019, so he’s hoping the return of the Brickyard 400 brings some better luck to the Team Penske wheelman.

4) Tyler Reddick

Tyler Reddick is nipping at the heels of Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson in the Cup Series point standings, as his consistency continues to be a marvel each weekend. Pocono was no different, as the 23XI Racing wheelman came home P6 at the Tricky Triangle.

When it comes to Indianapolis, experience isn’t the name of the game for Reddick. He’s only run the Brickyard 400 once, but it was a solid afternoon, as his Richard Childress Racing No. 8 came home P8 on the afternoon.

5) Christopher Bell

Christopher Bell barely missed out on a top ten in Pocono, finishing P12 on the afternoon. The Joe Gibbs Racing fleet was fast, but the No. 20 couldn’t necessarily capitalize on it, after watching Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. and Ty Gibbs have success throughout the weekend. 

Still, Bell has three wins on the season, and he won the Coca-Cola 600 earlier this season. A trophy in the Brickyard 400, where Bell only has one start and a P12 finish in 2020, would be another impressive notch in his belt.

NASCAR Brickyard 400 Predictions — P6 through P40:

6) Chase Elliott
7) Kyle Larson
8) Brad Keselowski
9) Joey Logano
10) Martin Truex Jr.
11) Ross Chastain
12) Chris Buescher
13) Bubba Wallace
14) Alex Bowman
15) Daniel Suárez
16) Kyle Busch
17) Michael McDowell
18) Ty Gibbs
19) Josh Berry
20) Erik Jones
21) Chase Briscoe
22) Austin Dillon
23) Ryan Preece
24) Carson Hocevar
25) John Hunter Nemechek
26) Austin Cindric
27) A.J. Allmendinger
28) Noah Gragson
29) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
30) Corey LaJoie
31) Justin Haley
32) Todd Gilliland
33) Daniel Hemric
34) Zane Smith
35) Harrison Burton
36) Ty Dillon
37) Cody Ware
38) Jimmie Johnson
39) B.J. McLeod
40) J.J. Yeley

As you can see, Racing Insights believes Denny Hamlin will kiss the bricks for the first time in his career. Meanwhile, for drivers with a win entering Sunday’s race at Indianapolis, it’s a mixed bag, as Brad Keselowski is projected to finish P6, Kyle Busch is a little further down in P16, and Jimmie Johnson is near the bottom in P38, per their projections.