National Championship Odds: Betting favorites to win College Football Playoff after Week 12

The race to the first expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is entering the backstretch, and the odds are beginning to reflect the narrowing field of national championship contenders.

With just two weekends remaining in the 2024 regular season, the Vegas oddsmakers overhauled their ranking of the teams with the best odds to win it all following a revealing Week 12 of college football action.

Here’s how FanDuel Sportsbooks’ odds have evolved entering a pivotal Week 13 slate:

Ohio State +320

Ohio State (9-1, 6-1) may be No. 2 in the national polls, but according to the Vegas oddsmakers, the Buckeyes are the unquestioned No. 1 team when it comes to national championship odds. Entering the most impactful game of the week for the College Football Playoff field, when Ohio State hosts undefeated Big Ten surprise Indiana, the uber-talented Buckeyes are the odds-on favorite to hoist the CFP national championship trophy at the end of the season.

Along with a potential Playoff bid on the line, Saturday’s Big Ten showdown in Columbus will also serve as a play-in game of sorts for the opportunity to face No. 1-ranked Oregon (11-0) in the Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis. Should Ohio State end the Hoosiers’ Cinderella run, it would set up a rematch college football fans have craved since mid-October when the Ducks eked out a 32-31 win over the Buckeyes in Eugene.

Oregon +440

The top-ranked Ducks (11-0, 8-0 B10) are the unanimous No. 1 team nationally having escaped every game this season with a victory, including a one-point win over Ohio State in mid-October. Nevertheless, Vegas still maintains its love for the Buckeyes as the favorite to win it all at the end of the season.

Entering its final bye of the season, Oregon will be eager spectators of the Week 12 game between Ohio State and Indiana, watching intently for who the Ducks will face in 2 1/2 weeks for the Big Ten Conference Championship Game in Indianapolis. Whatever happens Saturday in Columbus, Oregon remains in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff.

Georgia +480

Now that’s the Georgia we all remember. Fresh off its convincing 31-17 victory over Tennessee in Athens, the Bulldogs (8-2, 6-2 SEC) appear to be clicking on all cylinders at the perfect time, with only home games against UMass and Georgia Tech remaining. That said, the rival Yellow Jackets are no pushover this season having already knocked off previously-undefeated Miami.

That said, the win over Tennessee clearly convinced Vegas oddsmakers that Georgia remains a legitimate National Championship contender, leapfrogging Texas for the nation’s third-best odds to once again hoist the CFP championship trophy when all’s said and done.

Texas +550

Despite Vegas dropping their odds to win it all, the Longhorns (9-1, 7-1 SEC) still hold an edge in their effort to secure a spot in the SEC Championship Game in their first season in the league. Still, that would require closing out the regular season with wins over Kentucky and on the road at College Station in the revival of the Lonestar State showdown vs. rival Texas A&M.

The highly-anticipated date with the Aggies aside, Texas has proven itself a true national championship contender at several points throughout the regular season, even if it doesn’t have any Top 25 wins to show for it. Of course, even that narrative can get be dismissed if the Longhorns can knock off A&M and whichever two-loss SEC team it faces in Atlanta.

Alabama +800

Speaking of two-loss SEC teams, No. 7 Alabama (8-2, 4-2 SEC) remains in good standing with the Vegas oddsmakers coming off its lopsided 52-7 win over FCS-level Mercer on Saturday. Much like the Longhorns, the Crimson Tide still has its bitter in-state rival — Auburn — ahead in Week 14, but a convincing road win at Oklahoma could further cement Alabama’s status as a CFP contender.

But before that, the Crimson Tide also faces the unenviable position of playing Texas or Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game and potentially losing in Atlanta and finding itself on the outside of the 12-team Playoff picture, especially if the other two-loss league teams (Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss) continue to win out. It’s a scary scenario Ole Miss‘ Lane Kiffin brought up Monday, suggesting his fellow SEC coaches would rather avoid the league title game completely.

Ole Miss +1000

Coming out of their Week 11 bye, the Rebels (8-2, 6-2 SEC) are still riding high off their home upset of Georgia and appear in great position to make it into the College Football Playoff field by simply winning their final two regular season games. Vegas oddsmakers agree Ole Miss is a likely Playoff contender, and clearly remains impressed with the product Kiffin and company have put on the field so far.

There remains an outside shot at the SEC Championship game should Alabama falter down the stretch, but as mentioned earlier, Kiffin would likely prefer to stay as far away from Atlanta as possible — at least until the week of the CFP championship game.

Penn State +1800

The odds jump considerably between the pack of two-loss SEC teams and Penn State (9-1, 6-1 B10), which sits on the outside looking in on the Big Ten Championship Game due to its head-to-head loss to Ohio State earlier this season. Given that setback, the Nittany Lions are likely in the Buckeyes’ corner this weekend against Indiana, if for no other reason to maintain its strength of schedule and the ultimate value of that Ohio State loss.

That said, should the Hoosiers continue its Cinderella run this season and knock off the Buckeyes at home, it would almost assure Indiana the Big Ten’s second Playoff spot meaning Penn State’s CFP odds would likely drop precipitously. It’s because of this uncertainty that has Vegas hedging its bets with two weeks to go.

Notre Dame +2000

Notre Dame (9-1) has won eight straight since a shock-to-the-system home loss to Northern Illinois, including a 52-3 rout of Florida State, but will have the opportunity to prove it belongs in the College Football Playoff field by winning its final two games of the regular season against 24th-ranked Army and a struggling USC.

The undefeated Black Knights are one of the best stories of 2024, along with Indiana, but the Fighting Irish entered the week as 14-point home favorites and appear primed to ruin Army’s run. As an independent, Notre Dame doesn’t qualify for one of the Playoff’s Top 4 seeds, but will secure itself a first-round home game by finishing the regular season strong.

Indiana +2500

Vegas oddsmakers still aren’t certain what to make of undefeated Indiana (10-0, 7-0 B10), and thus remain hesitant to thrust the Hoosiers into the national championship mix, at least until they prove their merits Saturday by beating Ohio State in Columbus. Should that happen, expect Vegas to respond in kind and push Indiana higher among the championship favorites.

Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers are still one of the best stories of the 2024 season, and a spot in the Playoff remains a possibility despite a horrible strength of schedule that will only feature one Top 25 game on its record when all’s said and done. Of course, a loss to the Buckeyes will prove all the haters right and likely could have the Hoosiers on the outside of the 12-team field.

Miami +4000

The Hurricanes were idle in Week 12 but is still reeling from its shocking Week 11 upset at the hands of Georgia Tech. Of course that loss doesn’t necessarily doom Miami’s hopes for either the ACC Championship Game or the College Football Playoff. Should the ‘Canes win out against Wake Forest and Syracuse, Miami would win the ACC tie-breaker with Clemson due to a higher winning percentage against common opponents given the Tigers’ loss to Louisville.

Miami remains one of college football’s most entertaining teams given the play of Heisman hopeful QB Cam Ward and its propensity for playing close games thi season. If the ‘Canes can get back on track against Wake Forest and potentially win the ACC outright, a Top 4-seed and first-round bye would likely be in its future, further strengthening Miami’s championship odds in the process.

Tennessee +4000

Tennessee (8-2, 6-2 SEC) is licking its wounds after leaving Athens with an ugly 31-17 loss to Georgia, putting the Volunteers at the back of the SEC’s two-loss field of Playoff contenders, behind the likes of the Bulldogs, Alabama, and Ole Miss.

Still, all is not lost for the Vols given their head-to-head win over the Crimson Tide. Should Alabama lose in the SEC Championship game, the CFP committee will have a serious decision to make among the SEC logjam of Playoff contenders.

Others Receiving National Championship Odds

Below are the rest of the odds for teams to win the national championship, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:

Colorado +5000
SMU +5000
Clemson +6000
Texas A&M +10000
Boise State +15000
Tulane +20000
Arizona State +25000
BYU +25000
Iowa State +25000
South Carolina +50000
Army +80000
TCU +100000
Texas Tech +100000
West Virginia +100000
UNLV +100000
Kansas State +100000
Baylor +100000