NBA Draft: Four first-round sleepers that could outplay their current projections

The NBA Draft Lottery has come and gone, as has the NBA Draft Combine. As we continue forward toward NBA Draft Night, we are met with an array of player pro days, closed-door interviews, and individual team workouts.

Wednesday at midnight is the deadline for college players to withdraw their names from the NBA Draft in order to maintain NCAA eligibility. At this point, we are able to gather information, as a lot of it is floating around. However, that information is what someone wants to have. Whether that someone is an NBA team or the player’s agencies, there is a lot to sift through.

This is also a great time to go back and dive into film. As an evaluator, trust your eyes, trust your research, and trust your time in the gym and speaking with those close to the players. NBA Draft Night is June 22.

Here are four players in the 2023 NBA Draft, players already projected in the first round, that could outperform their current projections.

G Kobe Bufkin, Michigan

There is a confidence Kobe Bufkin plays with a great pace. He is comfortable on the ball; he is comfortable off the ball. Bufkin has the skill set to finish plays or to set up plays. There is a crafty handle, good athleticism, and touch. His 14 points on 35.5 percent from three on 3.7 attempts per game showed the comfort off the ball. He also acted as the primary initiator for the majority of the second half of the season.

Bufkin was the third option for a Michigan team, and he still managed 14.0 points and 2.9 assists on 21.8 usage this season. He also contributed 6.7 box plus-minus and 4.1 win shares with a 19.2 player efficiency rating. At 6-foot-4 and 175 with a wing span approaching 6-foot-8, there is a lot to like with what Bufkin brings to the table.

There is also the fact that he is on a clear upward trajectory. At only 19 years old, the Michigan sophomore more than tripled his numbers, across the board, from year one to year two. He also showed that he could grow, within a system, allowing others to shine as well.

There is a lot of value in a low-maintenance, high-productive player that can fit seamlessly into multiple roles at the NBA level.

G Jordan Hawkins, UConn

Shooting is king in today’s basketball, and Jordan Hawkins might have been the most lethal shooter in college basketball last season. The UConn guard shot 38.8 percent on 7.6 attempts from three during the season. That percentage rose to 50 percent on 7.0 attempts during the NCAA Tournament.

What made Hawkins such a dangerous threat was his ability to knock down shots both off the catch and off movement. An opposing team had to keep a player attached, as Hawkins is advanced in moving off the ball, using screens, angles, and footwork to find space. A quick look at the success the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets are having this season and contested shooting off movement is playing a big role.

Hawkins came in at 6-foot-4.25 height without shoes and a 6-foot-6.75 wingspan at the NBA Draft Combine. Both wins for him, showing he has adequate size for the shooting guard position at the next level. He will need to develop his handle in the half-court and his finishing at the rim to advance his overall scoring package.

Shooting comes at a premium in today’s game.

C Dereck Lively, Duke

Rim protection. That is the obvious value of Dereck Lively, but his defense goes much further than that. Lively moves in a way that many cannot, let alone many who are 7-foot-1 with a reported 7-foot-7 wing span. When you couple the size with his lateral quickness, vertical pop, and ability to turn his hips are in a class of their own in this draft class.

It took Lively about a month of the season to get up to speed at Duke, but for the final month-and-a-half of the season, he was the most dominant defensive presence in college basketball. He finished the season averaging 4.7 blocks per-40, with a 12.7 block percentage. In 14 games played in February and March, Lively averaged 3.0 blocks in 26.2 minutes played.

Offensively, Lively will need to continue figuring things out. At 7-foot-1, he has shown shooting touch since his days back in high school. That touch, however good it looks in warm-ups, has not yet translated to games, shooting 15.4 percent from three and 60 percent from the free throw line at Duke. However, there is some upside there, so do not entirely write it off. That said, what Lively does provide is an incredible vertical lob threat.

Lively was one of the better lob catchers in college basketball last season. The vertical spacing he provides from the dunker spots and as a roll man is very real and tangible. While today’s game is moving toward shooting and/or making decisions with the ball, there is still a place for elite rim protectors who have to be accounted for around the rim. Strength will need to come, and he will need to develop an offensive go-to move. With that said, he did shoot 65.8 percent from the field, playing within himself.

At the end of the day, a player who is 7-foot-1, with a 7-foot-7 wing span, and runs and moves like a wing is unique.

F Leonard Miller, G-League Ignite

Leonard Miller is a late bloomer. Not only is he a late bloomer, but he also did a lot of his ‘blooming’ out of the big spotlight. He played his senior year of high school in Fort Erie, Canada, and then his gap year with the G-League Ignite program. Having a lot of late growth outside of the public eye can hurt a player’s buzz.

In high school at Fort Erie Prep (CAN), Miller was a primary initiator. He would bring the ball up the court and get his team into sets. He mostly played in a pick-and-roll system, and he showed excellent passing acumen for a player who measured 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-2 wing span.

Playing with the G-League Ignite program this year, he was not asked to do that. He was asked to be a grunt work guy, a guy who made plays around the basket and played mostly downhill. Miller averaged 16.9 points and 10.1 rebounds. He shot 55.4 percent from the field, 32.7 percent from three, and 79.2 percent from the free throw line.

Size, length, and versatility are all intriguing here.