NBA Draft: Lottery selections from preps to pros

On Thursday night, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver will walk to the podium to announce 14 lottery picks and 30 first-rounders. Coverage of the 2023 NBA Draft will start at 7:30 PM EST. This will be the latest step in each of these players’ journeys from the high school ranks to their professional careers.

Last year, five players selected in the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery were five-star-plus+ level talents, including each of the top three picks. Another three players were ranked with four stars by at least one of the four major recruiting services (On3, Rivals, 247, and ESPN). Six players taken in the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery were multi-year college players, five of which were ranked outside of the On3 Industry Ranking in their respective high school classes. The No. 9 pick Jeremy Sochan, who was No. 54 in the 2021 On3 150, became a one-and-done selection as a four-star. Dyson Daniels (No. 8) played for the G-League Ignite program, and Ousmane Dieng (No. 11) played professionally in France.

As the 2023 NBA Draft gets underway, On3 National Recruiting Analyst, Jamie Shaw, takes a look back at his player evaluations of each prospect

1. San Antonio Spurs

Victor Wembanyama, C, Metroplitans 92 (France)

Victor Wembanyama has been tabbed as a generational talent for the better part of the past two years. Not only does he enter the NBA as one of its tallest players (7-foot-4), but he also is one of its longest (reported 8-foot-0 wing span). With that length, Wembanyama is a fluid athlete with excellent coordination. He is able to open his hips and slide his feet, and his length makes up for any missteps he has guarding the ball. He runs the floor well, and he has natural timing. His dimensions and physical attributes are truly different.

Playing as a 19-year-old in the French League, Wembanyama led the league in scoring (21.6), rebounding (10.4), and blocked shots (3.0). When you fire up the film, you see the handle, and you see the shooting touch. The makings are there as a 7-foot-4 player who can handle and pass like a playmaking wing. Wembanyama is truly a unique player without a previous archetype to look on. Anytime we see things we have never seen before, there is a chance to overreact. That said, the production he has seen, as a teenager, playing at a high level of basketball, coupled with the upside that is still there, makes this the obvious choice for the Spurs.

2. Charlotte Hornets

Brandon Miller, SF, Alabama

Brandon Miller was one of college basketball’s best players for the better part of last season. The crown jewel was a February game against South Carolina; despite facing adversity that week, he finished with 41 points, going 8-12 from three and 14-25 from the field. His production took a downward spiral after that game, shooting 31.4 percent from the field and 29.2 percent from three in six SEC and NCAA Tournament games. Still, for the season, Miller finished top ten in the SEC in rebounds, blocks, field goal percentage, and free throw percentage while leading the league with 18.8 points per game.

Miller finished in the top 20, No. 17, in the final 2022 On3 150. He was not higher because, in our viewings of Miller, he was a streaky three-point shooter, and his athleticism caused questions at the rim. However, he was good within two and three dribbles, capable of creating space and rising up from the mid-range and mid-post areas. Miller will also turn 21 in November of his rookie year and is a full year and some change older than both Henderson and Wembanyama. While the questions about his burst still exist, Miller shot less than 40 percent at the rim in the half-court and 32 percent off the dribble; he proved to be a very good shooter knocking down 40.4 percent of threes on 7.3 attempts during the regular season.”

Miller fits the positional mold from a size and shooting standpoint that is looked for in the NBA. He has excellent positional size, measured at 6-foot-9 in shoes, with a great frame and 6-foot-11 wing span, which should continue to add the weight necessary. He was No. 14 in the final 2022 On3 Industry Ranking.

3. Portland Trailblazers

Scoot Henderson, PG, G-League Ignite

For the most part of the year, Scoot Henderson was talked about as a clear top-two choice in this draft. Henderson measured 6-foot-4 with shoes on and a 6-foot-8 wing span, weighing in at 195 pounds. He has an NBA-ready body, able to withstand the physicality and duration of an NBA season. Henderson is an explosive, quick-twitch player. His 35-inch standing vert shows the burst that gets him from 0 to 60 in a hurry. Henderson’s explosion is clear as he lives in the paint, but it is also exacerbated when you see the great pace he plays with.

His pace also shines in the pick and roll, where he is patient and allows the play to develop to make a proper read. Henderson has an array of pull-ups, floaters, and finishes around the basket, all the while capable of getting up on the rim and finishing with authority. He is more of a score-first lead guard, capable of making passing reads, and he is going to have to shore up his three-point shooting touch (27.5% 3P, 76.4% FT), which will open up his game more. You also like the fact that Henderson is an alpha, and there is no denying that. He wants the ball, he works the hardest, and he holds his teammates accountable.

Henderson was originally part of the 2022 class. The summer before his senior year of high school (Kell High/GA), he signed a two-year contract with the G-League Ignite. In his three seasons at Kell, Henderson won 73 total games. In his junior year, he averaged 32 points and six assists, being named Georgia’s 6A State Player of the Year. On3 moved Henderson to No. 10 in the final 2021 On3 150, the highest in the industry. At the time, we loved his size and the pace he played with; at that stage, nothing seemed forced with him.

4. Houston Rockets

Amen Thompson, PG, Overtime Elite

Amen Thompson signed a pro contract prior to On3 becoming a company, so he was not in any of our rankings. Thompson’s rise was quick. He and his twin brother Ausar burst on the scene in March, and by May, they signed professional contracts with the newly-formed Overtime Elite program.

Amen checks all the physical toolboxes. He measured 6-foot-7 in shoes with a 7-foot-0 wing span and 214.2 pounds. He also measured a 40-inch max-vert and is a top 1 percent type of athlete, having both quick-twitch and explosion. Thompson played primarily on the ball for Overtime Elite. He showed capable of touching the paint and making reads. The question with the Overtime Elite film is that the majority of it is played in transition and at a fast pace. The bigger problem is the shooting. Through 25 games last season, he shot 25.97 percent from three and 67.4 percent from the free throw. Many of the misses were very bad, off-target, and off-line. Can that improve, and what is the timeline?

5. Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson, SF, Overtime Elite

Amen Thompson signed a pro contract prior to On3 becoming a company, so he was not in any of our rankings. Thompson’s rise was quick. He and his twin brother Amen burst on the scene in March, and by May, they signed professional contracts with the newly-formed Overtime Elite program.

Ausar and his brother Amen played on the same team in the Overtime Elite League. Amen was the one on the ball, and Ausar played primarily off the ball. He carries the same 6-foot-7 frame and 7-foot-0 wing span as his brother; however, Ausar came in with a 38-inch max-vert and at 218.2 pounds. Ausar showed some chops with some play-making capabilities from the wing spot. He also showed a quick burst into the paint, capable of finishing above the rim. Ausar still has the same shooting woes, 30.4 percent from three on 4.5 attempts per game. By all accounts, the work ethic is there, and so is the competitive nature, but will the jump shot translate?

6. Orlando Magic

Anthony Black, PG, Arkansas

Early on in high school, Anthony Black was a wide reciever with multiple high major offers. As a junior, he decided to focus solely on basketball. During his senior year, he transferred to Duncanville (TX) High, where he battled state transfer rules, only able to play short stretches during the season. Black measured 6-foot-7 with shoes and a 6-foot-7.5 wing span.

The positional size is intriguing, as he played predominantly on the ball at Arkansas. You saw the ability to defend the point of attack but also get into the passing lanes and disrupt. He brings that football mentality to the basketball court with his competitiveness. Black has a good handle and is a good passer with court vision. The swing skill will be his shooting, where he shot 30.1 percent from three. There is a leadership quality he brings at 210 pounds. While there is an upside to grow into, the floor is high with Black. At the very least, Black is a connective piece that can play the one through three and act as a secondary initiator.

On3 was higher than the industry on Black, the only entity to have him in the top ten of the final 2022 On3 150. We bought in on his ability to see the floor and create for others, as well as the toughness his football background brought on the defensive end. I like his ability to create opportunities and adjust on the fly in high school.

7. Indiana Pacers (to Washington)

Bilal Coulibilay, SF, Metropolitans 92 (France)

Bilal Coulibaly has had quite a rise over the last six months, working his way into the rotation of the Metropolitans 92 team. This summer, Coulibilay played for the Metropolitans 92 u21 team, where they showcased on ESPN against Bronny James and Chatsworth (CA) Sierra Canyon’s European Tour. He played this season at 18 years old and will still be 18 on draft night, showcasing great positional length – 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan – and a willingness to make the hustle plays. He is still raw, but his rise over the past eight months has been enormous. Coulibilay may not be someone who is ready-made to get into a rotation, but the raw tools, along with the natural ability, are there to develop.

8. Washington Wizards (to Indiana)

Jarace Walker, PF, Houston

Jarace Walker measured in at 6-foot-7 without shoes and a massive 7-foot-3 wingspan at a strong 240 pounds. This helped him to build his reputation as a switchable defender who can guard on an island or bang on the block. This will be where he is most valuable in the NBA, the earliest. He does have questions about his scoring. While he showed touch and strength on the block in college, he preferred to hang out facing the basket, where he shot 32.9 percent from three on 3.6 attempts per game during conference play. How will he consistently score in the NBA is a question that will need to be addressed. But his 9.9 rebounds per-40 and 18.2 defensive rebound percentage bode well, as do the passing flashes he showed on film.”

Walker finished No. 14 in the final 2022 On3 150. On3 was slightly lower than the industry on him based on the scoring questions and lack of real wiggle in the half-court. Those questions still do exist, but the frame and strength give him a high floor as a winning piece.

9. Utah Jazz

Taylor Hendricks, PF, UCF

The measurements are intriguing with Taylor Hendricks, measuring 6-foot-9 in shoes with a 7-foot-1 wing span. That is ideal for the three-and-D-type role that he is being projected toward at the NBA level. While there are questions about his ability to slide his feet on the defensive end, he is an excellent weak-side shot blocker. Hendricks averaged 1.8 blocks during conference play and knocked down 39.4 percent of his threes on 4.6 attempts throughout the season. He will need to continue adding weight to his 210-pound frame, but his instincts as a team/weak side defender and ability to consistently space the floor, knocking down shots give him a safe floor to bet on.

On3 was higher on Hendricks than the industry. He finished No. 45 in the final 2022 On3 150. While his high school outputs were inconsistent at times, he consistently showed two very intriguing attributes, shot-blocking, and three-point touch, which kept him high on our board. In hindsight, despite being an On3 outlier, we may have still been a little low on Hendricks. He chose to play at UCF with his twin brother Tyler.

10. Dallas Mavericks (to Oklahoma City)

Cason Wallace, PG, Kentucky

There is an innate toughness with Cason Wallace that you simply believe in. While he may not be the most dynamic, or the quickest twitch guard out there, he seems to consistently come up with winning plays. This is what makes Wallace one of the highest-floor guards in this draft class. He is a strongly built guard, an aggressive defender, something that will translate to the NBA from day one. The five-star measured 6-foot-4, with shoes on, at 195 pounds, and a 6-foot-8 wingspan. He has the strength and athletic quickness to guard each of the perimeter positions. Offensively, Wallace shot 35.6 percent from three this season, showing to be better off the catch than off the bounce. He averaged 4.2 assists per game in SEC play. Wallace also showed toughness this season, playing through multiple injuries.

Wallace finished the 2022 On3 150 at No. 4 overall. There was something innate about Wallace as a winner that we simply believed in. His rugged nature as a point-of-attack defender and the fact we bought into him being a point guard played a big role in our ranking.

11. Orland Magic (via Chicago)

Jett Howard, SF, Michigan

Positional size and shooting are the stand-out qualities with Jett Howard. He measured 6-foot-8 in shoes with a 6-foot-9 wing span. So while he is not overly lengthy, his 215-pound frame provides good strength and a sturdy base. The question is the overall athleticism and the poor defensive numbers. Howard shot 36.8 percent from three on 7.3 attempts per game. He showed he can shoot off movement and off the catch as a floor spacer. The swing skill here is, can he at least get his defense to a league-average area?

Howard spent two seasons at Bradenton (FL) IMG Academy and played with the Nightrydas on Nike’s EYBL Circuit. He was somewhat hidden in plain sight, playing on very good teams in complementary roles. Howard finished No. 39 in the final 2022 On3 150, ahead of the industry. 

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (to Dallas)

Dereck Lively, C, Duke

Dereck Lively measured at 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-7 wingspan. And that plays into the intrigue with Lively. However, what sends it over the top is the way he moves. At 7-foot-1, Lively is an incredibly fluid athlete, able to open his hips and slide his feet. He is also a high-level rim protector, both on the ball and from the weak side. 

Offensively, there are questions about how Lively scores. In college and throughout high school, he has shown shooting touch outside of games that have yet to translate in-game. He is a vertical floor spacer, playing as the roll man or in the dunker spots; you have to keep a body on him, as he was one of college basketball’s best lob catchers last season. He will need to continue adding strength, but the defense is his superpower. If he can add the in-game shooting, that would be icing on the cake.

On3 was lower than the industry standard on Lively, ranking him No. 8 in the 2022 On3 150; however, he maintained his top-10 status based on his absolutely unique defensive tools and upside. While we had questions about how he would score and his ability to hold up with his thin core and hips, the shot-blocking and fluidity were too hard to ignore. He was the No. 1 player in the 2022 On3 Industry Ranking.

13. Toronto Raptors

Gradey Dick, SG, Kansas

It is really the shooting with Gradey Dick that really stands out. As a freshman, he knocked down 40.3 percent of his threes on 5.7 attempts per game. Dick measured just short of 6-foot-7 without shoes with a 6-foot-8.75 wingspan. More than adequate positional size in the NBA. Dick will need to answer questions about defending on an island, but he showed consistent improvement as a team defender throughout the season. Make no mistake, Dick’s NBA skill is his shooting. The gravity he pulls off the catch opens up spacing on the NBA court. 

The shooting is a big reason why On3 ranked Dick higher than the industry. He had a big senior season at Sunrise Christian, averaging over 17 points and shooting almost 47 percent from three while leading his team to a 24-2 record. Dick finished No. 11 in the 2022 On3 150. As a senior, he performed his best when the lights were the brightest and the stage was the biggest. That translates.

14. New Orleans Pelicans

Jordan Hawkins, SG, UConn

The shot-making is the superpower here, and Hawkins shoots off movement as well as anyone in this draft class. It was important for Hawkins to measure at 6-foot-4.25 without shoes, and his 6-foot-6.75 wingspan gives him adequate size for the shooting guard position. Hawkins was at his best during UConn’s NCAA Tournament run to the national championship when he averaged 16.3 points on 50 percent shooting (seven attempts per game) from three. He needs to continue adding strength, which will help him on the defensive end. His ability to move off the ball and quickly find his balance with off-ball movement can also mask some of his lack of creation off the bounce. Opposing teams will have to stay attached to him throughout a half-court possession, providing gravity and spacing even if he is being used as a decoy.

On3 was in line with the industry with Hawkins as he finished No. 53 in the 2021 On3 150. All four services finished with him between 47 and 59, with him and he finished at No. 52 in the 2021 On3 Industry Ranking.