NBA Mock Draft 1.0; Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren, or Paolo Banchero?

We are around the mid-way point of the college basketball season. Players are building their resumes, and scouts are starting to put together their NBA Draft boards.

Like every other draft, the 2022 version is unique to itself. A living, breathing, and fluid organism that changes throughout the process. With the experience On3 has in scouting these players throughout high school and now in college, we come at this from a unique perspective.

This draft has clear tiers of players. You have the three-player race for the top spot, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith, and Paolo Banchero. The four through eleven picks can go in any direction and for ten through about twenty-two you can say the same.

We start with the lottery and grow from there.

On3 Mock Draft 1.0

1. Jabari Smith

Fr. Auburn
6-10, 220-lbs., 7-1 wingspan
Stats:15.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.1 blocks.

With the importance of spacing in today’s game, Smith is the purest shooting big man the college game has seen in quite some time (42.4% 3P). Is a fluid athlete and plays with a great motor on both ends, which leads to his switchability on the defensive end. He will need to continue adding strength. If we are nitpicking, I would like to see him rebound better. Smith can push the break and create off two and three dribbles in the half-court.

2. Paolo Banchero

Fr. Duke
6-10, 245-lbs., 7-1 wingspan
Stats: 17.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.9 blocks

Banchero is a matchup problem when you pair his strong frame with his ability to handle and pass. A former high school quarterback, he has the confidence and ability to push the break and initiate the offense. Duke has done a good of setting Paolo up in multiple areas in the half-court to run the offense through him. He can score on the block has a nifty mid/high post-game. The question is his hip flexibility and ability to move his feet at the next level. He has an alpha mentality and is shooting 33-percent from three, which is an improvement.

3. Chet Holmgren

Fr. Gonzaga
7-1, 195-lbs., 7-5 wingspan
Stats: 13.6 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.5 steals, 3.4 blocks

Holmgren is the top rim protector in the class. He plays with a chip on his shoulder and a next play attitude. Fearless on the defensive end. He is very thin, and the makeup of his body makes you wonder how much weight he can put on. Offensively, he has shown a lot of flashes. He is comfortable with the ball in his hands, and he can shoot out to three, put the ball on the floor, and has good vision. The floor is not as high as the two above, but Holmgren’s best-case scenario could be just as high.

4. Johnny Davis

RS-So. Wisconsin
6-5, 196-lbs.,
Stats: 22.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.7 blocks

An alpha scorer who has seemingly come out of nowhere to shoot up draft boards this season and become a front-runner for player of the year. He is crafty off the bounce and utilizes footwork and angles to get to his shots. While he is not an elite athlete, he is a scrappy defender who understands rotations and is good in the passing lanes.

5. A.J. Griffin

Fr. Duke
6-6. 220-lbs., 6-11 wingspan
Stats: 8.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.6 blocks

Griffin has an NBA frame with broad shoulders and natural length. The sample size is small as he battled through injuries for the better part of the last 2.5 years. However, in his time on the EYBL and with Team USA, you got a good feeling of what he could be. His time on the floor at Duke has done nothing but prove those notions correct. Griffin is a smooth bucket getter a three-level scorer. He is shooting 62.8-percent from two, 46.6-percent from three, and 71.4-percent from the free-throw line this season. Griffin is the son of former NBA player and current Toronto Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin. He will still be 18 on the night of the NBA Draft.

6. Jaden Ivey

So. Purdue
6-4, 195-lbs, 6-9 wingspan
Stats: 16.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists

It is the burst that is so captivating with Ivey. His end-to-end speed is as good as any in the country. You wonder about the decision-making with 2.9 assists to 2.2 turnovers this season. His success with the U19 Team USA team this summer was eye-opening, and he has followed that up by elevating his play at Purdue, which includes shooting 42.4-percent from three this season.

7. Bennedict Mathurin

So. Arizona
6-7, 205-lbs., 6-10 wingspan
Stats: 17.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.4 blocks

Mathurin is lengthy with a prototypical wing frame. A good athlete with a nice vertical burst. His shot-making is his calling card; he is shooting 39.4-percent from three on 188 attempts in his college career. Mathurin can attack closeouts, but I would still like to see him continue developing the handle. He has the look of a wing who can be a good team defender, cutting off angles and getting into passing lanes.

8. TyTy Washington

Fr. Kentucky
6-3, 200-lbs., 6-8 wingspan
Stats: 13.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.4 bloc

Washington is an uber-productive guard whose teams win. Washington has a big framed guard who is comfortable on or off the ball. Kentucky plays a smaller guard (Sahvir Wheeler) beside him and uses Washington as a secondary initiator. Washington is shooting 39.7-percent from three, 54.6-percent from two, and 77.4-percent from the free-throw line. While he lacks high-end athletic pop, he makes great reads and can guard the point of attack.

9. Jalen Duren

Fr. Memphis
6-11, 255-lbs., 7-5.5 wingspan
Stats: 10.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.5 block

Duren has a strong frame, with a natural explosion and elite length. His physical tools already fit the NBA standard. He is an active and productive rebounder on both ends. He is also an excellent shot-blocker, with his length and pop along with his natural timing. While his defensive instincts are high-level, his offensive feel is raw. He is best in the dunker spots, finishing plays when he has someone else setting things up for him. He will still be 18 on the night of the NBA Draft.

10. Keegan Murray

So. Iowa
6-9, 220-lbs., 6-11 wingspan
Stats: 22.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 2.2 block

Murray has been one of the more efficiently productive players in college basketball. He has shown he can create his offense in the half-court, attack closeouts, and score from the mid-post. His 34.1-percent shooting from three is up from last season’s 29.6-percent. He projects as a good team defender, with the possibility of guarding threes, fours, and fives at the next level. While his ceiling may not be as high as some on the board, his floor is higher than many.

11. Kendall Brown

Fr. Baylor
6-8, 205-lbs., 6-11 wingspan
Stats: 10.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.3 blocks

Brown is possibly the most functionally explosive player in the draft. He is an excellent off-ball cutter, has excellent footwork, and is a high IQ player overall. His jump shot will always limit his ceiling. Also, while he is a good passer, would like to see him develop his ball skills. He is a good defender, able to switch up and down a lineup. Currently, he projects as the type of role player in the league for ten to 12 years.

12. Patrick Baldwin, Jr.

Fr. Milwaukee
6-9, 225-lbs., 6-11 wingspan
Stats: 13.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 block

Baldwin, Jr. is a smooth shooter. He has great balance with a repeatable, soft release and range. The caliber of his team is leading to questions about him being able to showcase his abilities. He is an average athlete. He can push the break in the open floor but wonder if he can create in the half-court or more of a catch-and-shoot threat. Even as such, the ability to consistently knock down shots off the catch and high-level defensive instincts make him an attractive prospect.

13. Ochai Agbaji

Sr. Kansas
6-5, 210-lbs, 6-10 wingspan
Stats: 20.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks

People have known Agbaji as an athletic wing with a defensive presence. He can guard multiple positions along the perimeter and has drastically improved his shooting (45.8-percent from three, up from 37.7-percent last season). Agbaji is putting the ball on the floor, attacking closeouts. There is a clear path to an NBA rotation here, with some longevity.

14. Blake Wesley

Fr. Notre Dame
6-5, 180-lbs., 6-11 wingspan.
Stats: 15 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.1 block

It only took a couple of games for Wesley to jump in the mix and take control of the Notre Dame team. His confidence is through the roof; as a freshman, he wants the ball to make the play. Notre Dame seems to be at its best when the ball is in Wesley’s hands in the half-court. He makes great reads out of the pick and roll and can create shots for himself and others as a primary initiator. His pull-up jump shot is confident, and he elevates high with a soft touch. The 3-point shot is streaky, but he can confidently get into it off the bounce. He needs to get stronger. His length, competitiveness, and quick-twitch give him a high upside as a defender.