NC State vs. Texas Tech odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

In the first round of the South Region in this year’s men’s NCAA tournament, the No. 6 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders will face the South’s No. 11 seed, NC State.

The Wolfpack punched their ticket to this year’s tournament at the last moment by capturing the ACC tournament title, which earned the conference an automatic bid. The Red Raiders, on the other hand, were unsuccessful at being crowned Big 12 regular season or tournament champions. Still, because of their impressive 2023-24 run, Texas Tech made it in this year as a No. 6 seed.

As mentioned above, NC State essentially needed to win the ACC tournament in order to qualify for the tournament. They did so by beating namesake programs in the conference: Louisville, Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina, who they upset in the championship game. What about that impressive ACC tournament run, NC state might have found themselves in the NIT this year after finishing tenth in the regular season.

Texas Tech had an impressive run in the Big 12 tournament, beating the likes of top-25-ranked Baylor and BYU before falling to the No. 1-ranked Houston Cougars in the semifinal matchup. Still, their hard work and regular season success, finishing the regular season 21-9, is what has them in the position that they are in to open the NCAA tournament.

Odds for TTU vs. NC State

According to FanDuel, the Red Raiders are favorites to advance to the Round of 32, being favored by -4.5 points in Thursday’s game. As far as the money line for each team, NC State sits at +155, while Texas Tech is at -188. As FanDuel sees it, Texas Tech should win a close one to kick off their tourney run.

The current point total line for this opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup has been placed at 145.5. FanDuel believes this showdown will feature more offense than most other games on Thursday, as an above-average point line compared to the rest of the games.

Final score predictions for Red Raiders vs. Wolfpack

BPI Predicted winner: Texas Tech

BPI Predicted point differential: 3.2

BPI Win probability (for TTU): 62.6%

BPI Matchup Quality: 88.1

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. As far as this matchup is concerned, the sports power’s BPI projects a point differential of 3.2 points in favor of Texas Tech while also calculating a modest 62.6 percent chance of victory for the Red Raiders.

BPI also gives this quarterfinal matchup a quality score of 88.1, which is one of the higher quality scores for the slate of action on Thursday.

KenPom Predicted final score: Texas Tech 76, NC State 73
KenPom Win probability (for TTU): 63 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time without taking factors like injuries into account. In this opening round throwdown, KenPom agrees with ESPN’s BPI and Vegas, projecting the Red Raiders to advance to the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament.

How to watch Texas Tech vs. NC State

Time: 8:40 p.m. CT
Channel: CBS, Streaming on Prime Video
Location: Pittsburgh, PA

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

Texas Tech and NC State will tip off at 8:40 p.m. CT. The game will take place at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA.

Fans who are unable to make the trip to Pennsylvania or can’t find tickets for the game can catch all the action live courtesy of Amazon Prime Video.