NC State vs. UNC odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Wolfpack, Tar Heels

The NC State Wolfpack and North Carolina Tar Heels are preparing for what’s slated to be a huge ACC showdown on Saturday afternoon.

Entering Saturday’s clash, the Wolfpack are 17-11 on the season, coming off a loss to the Florida State Seminoles in their last contest. On the other hand, the Tar Heels have been among the best teams in the nation over the 2023-2024 campaign, and enter Saturday with a 22-6 record.

Both teams are looking for a win on Saturday and a victory in a conference rivalry. Time will tell, but here’s everything you need to know before NC State and UNC tip off.

Odds for NC State vs. UNC

Coming into the game, UNC is a 10.5-point favorite over NC State, per FanDuel. The Tar Heels are also currently listed at -600 for the moneyline right now, while the Wolfpack are sitting at +450. 

The point total for the game is currently set at 153.5 points. We’ll see if these two conference rivals can get to that total when they clash on Saturday. 

Final score predictions for NC State vs. UNC

BPI Predicted winner: UNC
BPI Predicted point differential: 14.2
BPI Win probability (for UNC): 89%
BPI Matchup Quality: 76.6

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 14.2 points in UNC’s favor. It also gives the Tar Heels an 89 percent chance to win the game over the Wolfpack. 

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 76.6, which is in the middle of the road for Saturday’s competition. 

KenPom Predicted final score: UNC 82, NC State 69
KenPom Win probability (for UNC): 88%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between NC State and UNC, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Tar Heels to win.

How to watch NC State vs. UNC

Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Dean E. Smith Center | Chapel Hill, NC

NC State and UNC are set to tip off at 4:00 p.m. EST. It will be played at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC with a raucous crowd expected to be at the showdown.

TRY FUBO FOR FREE: For a limited time, new subscribers can save $20 on Fubo’s Pro, Elite, and Premier plans 

For fans outside of the area, the game can be watched on ESPN. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which does have an option to save for new subscribers.