NC State vs. UNC odds: Win probability, final score prediction in ACC Tournament

After finishing the regular season with a losing record in conference play, NC State is one win away from being crowned the 2024 ACC Tournament Champion. However, a rematch with top-seeded North Carolina stands between them and an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament.

The Wolfpack has had to win four games in four days to make it to this point in their postseason run. Meanwhile, UNC enjoyed its bye into the quarterfinals before taking care of Florida State and Pitt over the last two days.

North Carolina swept the two-game regular season series, winning those games by an 11-point average as the Tar Heels went on to with the ACC regular season title by two games.

Odds for NC State vs. North Carolina

Coming into the game, North Carolina is an 8.5-point favorite over NC State, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Tar Heels are currently listed at -450 for the money line as of Saturday morning, while the Wolfpack are sitting at +340.

The point total for the game is set at 156.5 points. The two squads scored a combined for 149 points during their previous matchup on March 2, which would not produce enough scoring for the over to hit if a similar final score were to occur.

Final score predictions for NC State vs. North Carolina

BPI Predicted winner: North Carolina
BPI Predicted point differential: 10.8
BPI Win probability (for North Carolina): 83.4 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 79.7

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 10.7 points in North Carolina’s favor. It also gives the Tar Heels an 83.4 percent chance to win the game over the Wolfpack on Saturday.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 79.7, which ranks No. 11 in quality scores predicted for the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: North Carolina 80, NC State 71
KenPom Win probability (for North Carolina): 80 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For Saturday’s game between NC State and North Carolina, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas’ decision to have the Tar Heels take care of the Wolfpack in the tournament final.

How to watch NC State vs. North Carolina

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Capital One Arena — Washington, DC

Fubo’s spring offer just kicked off – For a limited time, new subscribers can save $20 on their first month of Fubo’s Pro, Elite, and Premier plans.

The opening tip between the Wolfpack and Tar Heels is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET and will air live on ESPN. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which has an option for a free trial.