NC State vs. Duke odds: Win probability, final score prediction in ACC Tournament

Duke, the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament, will open their play in Washington D.C. today against an opponent in NC State, the No. 10 seed, that has already played the past two days. It’s a rematch between in-state schools from last week and one that both squads will want to secure in order to move on to Friday’s semifinals.

The Blue Devils (24-7, 15-5) won 79-64 over the Wolfpack just 10 days ago in Raleigh. It was a slow start for them but they eventually got an edge and then opened it up to a double-digit margin in the second half. However, they would go on to lose one game later against North Carolina to lose their chance for at least a share of the league’s regular-season title.

As for NC State (19-14, 9-11), they’ve already played twice inside Capital One Arena and picked up a pair of wins to reach the quarterfinals. They started with a team-effort in their opener as they won 94-85 over No. 15 Louisville on Tuesday. Then, yesterday, they hammered No. 7 Syracuse in the second half to go on to win 83-65 over the Orange.

Odds for NC State vs. Duke

Duke is currently a 10.5-point favorite at (-120) over NC State in the odds over at FanDuel. That puts the Wolfpack at +470 on the moneyline as a double-digit underdog today. That comes after they won the last two outright, once as a favorite and once as a dog.

As for the total, Vegas has the over/under at 148.5 points. For reference, these two teams went for 143 combined when they met just a few days ago in their second to last games of the regular season.

Final score predictions for NC State vs. Duke

BPI Predicted winner: Duke
BPI Predicted point differential: 12
BPI Win probability (for Duke): 86.8%
BPI Matchup Quality: 78

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index is favoring Duke by a dozen this evening. It’s fairly confident in that too at a probability of 86.8%.

As for matchup quality, this isn’t as high as you’d expect a rivalry matchup to be in the postseason. It sits at just No. 24 on the slate for tonight overall. It’s also behind two others in the ACC Tournament in No. 5 Wake Forest vs. No. 4 Pittsburgh and No. 11 Boston College vs. No. 3 Virginia.

KenPom Predicted final score: Duke 80, NC State 70
KenPom Win probability (for Duke): 81%

KenPom also has the Blue Devils as a double-digit winner tonight. Their probability is also quite high at over 80% like ESPN’s BPI.

Their prediction is very similar to how the game played out recently. Duke took it by 15 after almost breaking 80 with NC State being right around the 70-point ballpark as well.

How to watch NC State vs. Duke

Time: 7 p.m. EST
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.)

Duke and NC State will tipoff at 7 p.m. EST tonight from the nation’s capital. They will be the third game in the ACC Tournament today. It’ll be the first game of the evening’s action before the nightcap of Virginia vs. Boston College.

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It will certainly be a fresh spot for Duke to play a team that will be in their third game in three days. Still, NC State has already caught one higher seed by surprise, which means the Blue Devils will have to get their feel early in order to avoid an upset and meet the predictions going into the matchup.