New Mexico vs. Clemson odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

Clemson and New Mexico kick off their respective NCAA Tournaments in a No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup in Memphis on Friday afternoon. And it’s a popular spot for a potential Round of 64 upset.

Clemson, despite being the higher seed, isn’t a resounding pick to win among amateur brackets or in the advanced analytics. Even Vegas isn’t sold on Clemson as a favorite.

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And that’s coming against a feisty New Mexico team that played itself off the bubble during conference tournament week. Find out all you need to know about the matchup below.

Odds for Clemson vs. New Mexico

The lower-seeded Lobos are actually slight favorites to win, according to FanDuel, sitting as a 2.5-point favorite as of Thursday afternoon. The over/under is set at 151.5 total points.

Moneyline bettors can get action on New Mexico at +137 and on Clemson at -114.

Final score predictions for Clemson vs. New Mexico

BPI predicted winner: Clemson
BPI predicted point differential: 3.3
BPI win probability: 61.7%
BPI matchup quality: 89.2

The BPI is the most bullish prediction, and also the only one that gives the Tigers a victory. It gives the ACC outfit decent odds to win and by at least a 3-pointer. The other analytics and odds have New Mexico as a slim favorite.

It’s also predicted to be one of the best matchups of the Friday slate, with an 89.2 matchup quality ranking third among the NCAA Tournament games.

KenPom Predicted final score: 78-76, New Mexico
KenPom Win probability (for New Mexico): 56%

Unlike the BPI, KenPom likes the Lobos to get the victory. But unlike the BPI, KenPom is closer to a tossup on the overall matchup.

And the college basketball guru projects the game to finish razor close, with New Mexico prevailing by a single bucket.

How to watch Texas Tech vs. NC State

Time: 3:10 p.m. ET, Friday, March 22
Channel: TruTV, Streaming on Prime Video
Location: Memphis, TN

Both teams have multiple players capable of popping up for a big scoring night. For Clemson, the triumvirate of forward and leading scorer P.J. Hall, plus guards Joe Girard III and Chase Hunter offer the scoring pop. All three average in double figures scoring on the season.

The Lobos have four double-digit scorers, starting with Jaelen House and his 16.6 points per game. Donovan Dent, JT Toppin and Jamal Mashburn Jr. all average double figures in the scoring column for New Mexico, too.

With an over/under set north of 150 points, it’s a safe bet there could be some high scoring in this Friday afternoon showdown.