New York Giants: NFL analytics expert projects win total for 2024 season

The Giants offense will sport a different look this season. Daniel Jones should be back under center, but Saquon Barkley skipped town for another team in the NFC East.

And then there’s rookie receiver Malik Nabers, who could take over the show. Plus, the Giants defense should be stout in rushing the passer. But can they protect the injury-prone Jones and generate any sort of running game?

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert with NFL Network, doesn’t think much of the Giants chances in 2024. She projects New York to win 5.4 games. She’s more pessimistic than most oddsmakers by at least a game. After all, she believes New York will finish last in the NFC East and next-to-last in the NFC. Only the Panthers were worse.

Frelund recently broke down projected win totals for all 32 teams. Frelund didn’t offer the best news for the Giants.She based her formula on a mixture of stats, history and trends. Numbers don’t lie, at least until the season starts. Then you can throw them away.

Frelund explained how she created the predictions.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted “remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Odds, predictions for New York Giants 2024

• Win Total: under 6.5 (-140)
• Make Playoffs: +400
• Win Division: +1000
• Win Conference: +5000
• Win Super Bowl: +12500

Frelund wrote of the Giants:

“Another thing that just feels right: The Giants having a really nasty defensive front. Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux showed their teeth last season, and the inspired trade for Brian Burns makes me think of Big Blue’s Super Bowl teams, from the recent vintage all the way back to the time when Lawrence Taylor lurked in the Meadowlands.

“The offensive front is more of a question, though, and the unit will be tested early and often. From Week 3 through Week 8, New York faces a six-game stretch against talented teams that present a number of imposing pass rushers: at Cleveland, vs. Dallas (TNF), at Seattle, vs. Cincinnati (SNF), vs. Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh (MNF).”

The Giants signed four offensive linemen via free agency, but didn’t draft one. After so much talk about grabbing one of the elite quarterbacks with the No. 6 pick of the draft, the Giants selected Nabers, the former LSU star. They’ll use Devin Singletary, a free agent signing from the Texans, as the replacement for Barkley, who now plays for the Eagles. And in case Jones can’t go, New York signed Drew Lock , who has started games in Denver and Seattle, as the backup plan.

If you’re curious, Frelund pronounced the 49ers as the top team in the NFC with a projection of 11.2 wins. That certainly wasn’t a stretch given they return back the nucleus from last season’s Super Bowl team. San Fran was just ahead of the Eagles, with 11.1 wins. So her formula isn’t predicting a repeat of Philly’s meltdown from 2023. She believes the Lions will be third with 10.6 wins and the Falcons fourth with 9.9. New coach and new quarterback work wonders.

Meanwhile, the final three playoff teams predicted in this early look at 2024 are the Packers at 9.8 wins, Rams at 9.2 and the Cowboys at 9.1. Frelund projects the Commanders will be third in the NFC East behind the Eagles and Cowboys. The Giants are bringing up the rear.

You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And check out On3.com’s NFL coverage here.