NFL analytics expert predicts Arizona Cardinals win total for 2024 season

Kyler Murray is healthy and knows the Cardinals offense. Arizona has loaded up on elite talent through the draft. Could this be their year?

Maybe. At least one NFL expert believes the Cardinals will be better than last season, coach Jonathan Gannon’s first in Arizona. But not good enough to transition to playoff contender.

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert with NFL Network, projects the Cardinals with 6.7 wins. Bright side, that’s three more than last season. And she doesn’t think Arizona will finish last in the NFC East.

Frelund recently broke down projected win totals for all 32 teams. She based her formula on a mixture of stats, history and trends. Numbers are cold and scientific. There are no emotions tied to them.

Frelund explained how she created the predictions.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted “remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Arizona Cardinals odds, projections for 2024

• Win Total: over 6.5 (-160)
• Make Playoffs: +300
• Win Division: +1300
• Win Conference: +4000
• Win Super Bowl: +8000

Frelund wrote of the Cardinals:

“My models forecast No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. will lead the rookie class with more than 1,050 receiving yards. Now, this projection partially stems from this roster’s questions on the other side of the ball, which could cause the Cardinals to play catch-up. While Arizona beefed up the defense in free agency (SEE: Sean Murphy-Bunting, Justin Jjones, Bilal Nichols) and the draft (first-round pick Darius Robinson and second-rounder Max Melton), the unit’s still starting from a point where it ranked 31st in scoring D last season.

“And Cards fans need to give this growing group some time, as Arizona opens the season with five of its first six games coming against 2023 playoff participants — a challenging stretch that includes road trips to Buffalo, San Francisco and Green Bay.”

She didn’t mention Murray’s health. This time a year ago, he still was rehabbing from an ACL surgery. He didn’t get back to action until midway through the season, playing the final eight games. The Cardinals switched the offense in 2023, with far more plays under center. Under former coach Kliff Kingsbury, Murray was mostly a shotgun QB who could turn the mundane into the spectacular.

The one-time No. 1 player of the NFL Draft, Murray says he now feels all his experience.

“It’s just the natural maturation of life,” the Cardinals quarterback told reporters. “Being a rookie just trying to get better each and every game to Year 2 and feeling really comfortable and exploding onto the scene. Year 3, let’s ride; year 4 was kind of painful and I get hurt. Year 5, new regime and sitting there learning everything and just trying to be there to support the guys.

Analytics expert believes 49ers, Eagles will top NFC

If you’re curious, Frelund’s formula had the 49ers as the top team in the NFC with a projection of 11.2 wins. San Fran, the defending NFC champions, was just ahead of the Eagles, with 11.1 wins. So Frelund’s formula isn’t predicting a repeat of Philly’s meltdown from 2023. She believes the Lions will be third with 10.6 wins and the Falcons fourth with 9.9. Big props to a new coach and new QB.

Meanwhile, the final three playoff teams predicted in this early look at 2024 are the Packers at 9.8 wins, Rams at 9.2 and the Cowboys at 9.1. Frelund projects the Commanders will be third in the NFC East behind the Eagles and Cowboys. She believes the Cardinals will finish ahead of the Giants.

You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And check out On3.com’s NFL coverage here.