NFL analytics expert predicts Atlanta Falcons win total for 2024 season

The Atlanta Falcons have high expectations for the 2024 season, and one NFL analytics expert believes they will have a big win total. Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com predicted the win totals for every NFC team this season and has the Falcons winning 9.9 games, the fourth-best win total in the conference behind the Detroit Lions (10.6) Philadelphia Eagles (11.1) and San Francisco 49ers (11.2).

“I know we’ve talked a lot about the quarterback room in Atlanta, but I want to remind everyone that running back Bijan Robinson just finished 10th in the NFL with 1,463 scrimmage yards as a rookie,” Frelund wrote. “Just isolating rushing yards, my early projections show the second-year pro tops 1,100 in 55 percent of simulations. Take note, fantasy fiends! As for the schedule, the start is hard, with home games against Pittsburgh and Kansas City sandwiched around a trip to Philadelphia. My biggest concern with the Falcons — not only for those three games but the season as a whole — is their pass rush. That could be a serious limiting factor for this team.”

The Falcons finished the last three seasons with a 7-10 record. They had Arthur Smith as their head coach during that span, but the team hired Raheem Morris as the head coach earlier this year. As Frelund mentioned, the Falcons improved their QB room with the signing of Kirk Cousins and the drafting of Michael Penix Jr.

What could hold the Atlanta Falcons back from a big 2024 season?

But can the Falcons live up to the expectations and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2017? One could argue the reason the Falcons missed the postseason the last two years is inconsistent quarterback play. In 2022, Marcus Mariota was the starting QB after the team traded Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts. Last year, Desmond Ridder was QB 1 and had his struggles like Mariota.

Cousins should provide the Falcons more consistency since he’s been named to the Pro Bowl four times and has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in six of his last eight seasons. He will have plenty of offensive weapons to throw to, including Robinson, wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts.

The biggest question concern is on defense as the Falcons don’t have a dominant pass rusher. But the team will get Pro Bowl defensive tackle Grady Jarrett back after missing half of the season due to a torn ACL. Safety Jessie Bates returns and he’s coming off a season where he recorded 132 tackles, six interceptions and one touchdown. Linebacker Kaden Ellis is another player to watch after tallying 122 tackles and four sacks in 2023.