NFL analytics expert predicts Detroit Lions win total for 2024 season

What fun it is to be a Lions fan these days. Detroit came so close to the Super Bowl, then the city played host to the NFL Draft. If only the season could get here now, right?

And the educated NFL types are predicting another terrific season for the Lions, although this year, there are expectations. Detroit invested in quarterback Jared Goff and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. Goff now is the second-highest paid quarterback in the NFL with an average salary of $53.5 million. St. Brown will make $30 million a year. That placed him in the top three when he signed it.

The offense is there, as is the defense. So how many wins?

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert with NFL Network, broke down projected win totals for all 32 teams. She’s predicting the Lions at 10.6 victories, which will earn them the North Division and third seed in the NFC playoffs. Frelund used a prediction formula based on stats, history and trends. In other words, none of it is based on gut feelings.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted “remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Detroit Lions predictions, odds for 2024

• Win Total: over 10.5 (-115)
• Make Playoffs: -200
• Win Division: +145
• Win Conference: +550
• Win Super Bowl: +1300

Frelund wrote of the Lions:

“The football world just feels right when the Lions are set to host the Bears on Thanksgiving. And this year, with No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams potentially hitting his stride right about then, make sure to plan your meal around this game, too. That’s right: Any tradition of feasting during the Lions game on Turkey Day is OVER.

“Detroit did a lot to address its secondary, which ranked 27th in passing yards per game allowed (247.4) and 31st in passing yards per attempt allowed (7.8). The whole team will be tested in December, with home games versus the Packers and Bills followed by a pair of roadies against the Bears and 49ers.”

The Lions went DB heavy at the top of the draft, selecting Alabama’s Terrion Arnold followed by Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw. In free agency, they picked up Bengals defensive tackle D.J. Reader and Ravens guard Kevin Zeitler.

Overall, Frelund placed the 49ers as the top team in the NFC with a projection of 11.2 wins. They’re just ahead of the Eagles, with 11.1 wins. She picks the Falcons fourth with 9.9 victories. After all, they have a new head coach (Raheem Morris) and new quarterback, Kirk Cousins.

The final three playoff teams predicted in this early look at 2024 are the Packers at 9.8 wins, Rams at 9.2 and the Cowboys at 9.1.

You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And check out On3.com’s NFL coverage here.