NFL analytics expert predicts Green Bay Packers win total for 2024 NFL season

Yes, the NFL season doesn’t start for three-plus months. But why not ponder projected win totals for a team like the Green Bay Packers, which ended 2023 with an exclamation mark.

And, at least on paper, the Packers only got better in the offseason, with big-time signings like running back Josh Jacobs and safety Xavier McKinney. Plus, Green Bay added offensive tackle Andre Dillard, a one-time first-round draft pick who has yet to live up to his initial billing. Maybe a change of address will inspire the tackle.

But quarterback Jordan Love is a big reason for all the optimism. Last season was his first as a starter. It was the big, post-Aaron Rodgers year. Love passed the test and with a fast finish to the regular season, he led the Packers into the playoffs as the seventh seed. Green Bay then blasted the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium before falling to the 49ers. However, the team was competitive against the eventual NFC champions.

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert with NFL Network, broke down projected win totals for all 32 teams. She’s predicting the Packers will win 9.8 games this season while finishing second to the Lions in the NFC North. And her projections weren’t based on gut-level guesses.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

And she noted “remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

She used odds from Caesars Sportsbook & Casino. And she took the under for wins.

Packers odds for 2024 NFL season

• Win Total: under 10.0 (-110)
• Make Playoffs: -180
• Win Division: +190
• Win Conference: +800
• Win Super Bowl: +2000

Frelund gave props to Green Bay for who they selected in the first round of last month’s NFL Draft.

She wrote: “according to my models, drafting versatile blocker Jordan Morgan added more wins than any other selection could have when Green Bay came on the clock for the first time at Pick No. 25. The talented offensive lineman will further bolster an aerial attack that already saw Jordan Love throw 32 touchdown passes in his first season as a starter and help improve ground opportunities for a group that ranked third-worst in rushing yards over expected against stacked boxes last season (-49).

“The schedule gets thorny for the Pack around Thanksgiving, with a pair of home games against San Francisco and Miami immediately followed by road trips to Detroit and Seattle.”

Frelund projects the 49ers as the top team in the NFC, while predicting San Francisco will win 11.2 games. The 49ers are just ahead of the Eagles, who she forecast to win 11.1. The Lions are third with 10.6 wins. The Falcons are a surprise fourth at 9.9 victories. Atlanta gets props for signing Kirk Cousins at quarterback.

The final two teams predicted in this very early 2024 projection are the Rams at 9.2 and the Cowboys at 9.1.

There will be football this coming week in Green Bay. The Packers start phase three of OTAs on Monday. That means 11 on 11 drills. Although contact isn’t allowed, it’s still football in late May. We’ll take it.

You can check out all Frelund’s projections by clicking here.