NFL analytics expert predicts Kansas City Chiefs' win total for 2024 season

Coaches always harp on off-field distractions and how they can be devastating to a team. Can you imagine what Andy Reid of the Chiefs is telling his team these days?

Kansas City is the two-time defending Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs added speedy receiver Marquise Brown in free agency and kept the nucleus of their defense in tact. The likes of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce should be happy.

Now consider the distractions. Receiver Rashee Rice, who had a terrific rookie season in 2023, got in all sorts of legal trouble back home in Texas. Kicker Harrison Butker stayed in the news for weeks thanks to his controversial commencement speech to a Catholic college in Kansas. Plus, Kelce still is dating Taylor Swift, possibly the most famous woman in the world.

Then were the tragedies. A woman was killed and two dozen injured near the end of the Chiefs Super Bowl parade. And just last week, there was a near tragedy. Defensive end B.J. Thompson, while attending a team meeting, suffered a seizure that led to cardiac arrest. He is out of the hospital now.

It’s all why there could be several question marks about what the Chiefs will do on the football field. Still, Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for NFL Network, predicts that KC will stay atop the AFC with 10.9 wins.

Frelund recently projected the win totals for all 32 league teams. As summer kicks off, It’s always fun to predict game results for the fall. She explained that the predictions were a result of a model that uses a mixture of stats, history and trends.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted, “Remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Kansas City Chiefs odds and projections for 2024

• Win Total: under 11.5 (+100)
• Make Playoffs: -500
• Win Division: -245
• Win Conference: +330
• Win Super Bowl: +575

This is how Frelund assesses the Chiefs:

“My models indicate the Chiefs are on their way to winning their ninth straight AFC West division title. Despite two tough games to start the season (hosting the Ravens and Bengals), the schedule is favorable for the reigning Super Bowl Champs, who are not slated to be underdogs in my models in any of their 17 contests.

“Next Gen Stats show that Kansas City’s passing offense averaged just 6.5 air yards per attempt in 2023, the second-lowest mark in the NFL. The addition of receivers Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (free agency) and Xavier Worthy (Round 1 of the draft) should help change things. The Chiefs also benefit from the fact that their hardest four-game stretch of the season comes late in the slate (Weeks 14-17), which means they have a lot of time to establish their offensive identity before facing the likes of the Chargers, Browns, Texans and Steelers in December.”

The Chiefs offense should be fun with the speedy Worthy and Brown. In fact, Worthy posted the fastest-ever 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine. So say hello to some creative screens involving both those wideouts. Reid is known for such plays. Mahomes’ passing stats may get even more impressive.

On defense, the Chiefs kept the unit intact. Chris Jones finally got his official payday with $95 million in guaranteed money. KC also retained the services of linebacker Drue Tranquill, and linemen Mike Danna, Derrick Nnadi and Tershawn Wharton.

After KC, analyst predicts Bengals and Texans will be best in AFC

Overall, after the Chiefs, the Bengals finish second in wins among AFC teams. Frelund predicted that the Bengals, with Joe Burrow returning from wrist surgery, would win 10.5 times. She projects the Texans, with CJ Stroud, will come in third with 10.3 victories.

Frelund’s formula gives the Dolphins and Ravens the same win total of 10.2. The Bills are sixth at 10 victories followed by the Jets at 9.6. The top seven are the projected playoff teams. Among the AFC West, the Chiefs are first, significantly ahead of everybody else. The Chargers are second (8.2), followed by the Raiders (6.5) and Broncos (5.7). The West is no AFC North.

You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And for all of On3.com’s NFL coverage, click it here.