NFL analytics expert predicts Miami Dolphins win total for 2024 season

Tua Tagovailoa stayed healthy for the Dolphins last season as the quarterback figured out how to avoid a concussion. But Miami still had injuries, everywhere.

The team finished 11-6 in the regular season with the Dolphins boasting one of the flashiest offenses in the NFL. But with critical injuries to several defenders and offensive linemen, Miami struggled in the frigid air in Kansas City in the opening round of the playoffs. Everything was anemic in the 26-7 defeat.

So what may be in store for the team this season?

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for NFL Network, is predicting 10.2 victories for the Dolphins and the AFC East Division title. Frelund is projecting the win totals for all 32 league teams. She wrote that she based the prediction formula on a mixture of stats, history and trends.

Frelund explained how she created the formula for her projections. “Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted, “Remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Miami Dolphins odds, predictions for 2024

• Win Total: over 9.5 (-135)
• Make Playoffs: -160
• Win Division: +190
• Win Conference: +1400
• Win Super Bowl: +2500

Frelund writes of the Dolphins:

“Last season, Miami’s offense finished top five in total points, yards and completion percentage. This season they are one of three teams, per my model, that doesn’t have a win probability of less than 47 percent in consecutive games until after Thanksgiving. But that’s when things get a bit tricky for the Fins.

“After facing the Packers at Lambeau Field to cap the holiday’s three-game slate, they take on the Jets twice during a five-week period, with matchups against the Texans (road), 49ers (home) and Browns (road) sandwiched in between.”

The Dolphins return their offensive nucleus. There’s Tagovailoa. And Tyreek Hill, who still is one of the fastest receivers in the league although several passed him this off-season in salaries. Plus, Miami gave Jaylen Waddle a lucrative second contract.

Starting running back Raheem Mostert returns as does De’Von Achane, the speedster who battled knee injuries in 2023, his rookie season. The Dolphins also added Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright in the draft.

Defensively, Miami used a first-round pick on Penn State edge rusher Chop Robinson. And, they brought in linebackers Shaquil Barrett (Buccaneers) and Jordyn Brooks, a former first-rounder for the Seahawks. The Dolphins also hired Anthony Weaver from the Ravens to be their defensive coordinator.

If you’re curious, Frelund and her formula believes that the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs will win 10.9 games. That tops the AFC. Then, it’s the Bengals, with a healthy Joe Burrow, with 10.5. The Texans, in her projections. will come in third with 10.3 victories.

In an odd twist, Frelund’s formula has the Dolphins and Ravens tied at 10.2. The Bills are sixth at 10 victories followed by the Jets at 9.6. Those are the seven playoff teams based on Frelund’s formula.

You may check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And check out On3.com’s NFL coverage here.