NFL analytics expert predicts Tampa Bay Buccaneers win total for 2024 season

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC South in the team’s post Tom Brady era. And Baker Mayfield is back for another season.

And, standout receiver Mike Evans decided to stick around in Tampa Bay for an 11th season. Plus, the offensive line is a stout one. We all know that’s a key to success in the NFL.

However, on paper, it doesn’t appear that the Buccaneers will be banking a fourth straight division title. The Bucs lost a ton on defense. The biggest loss might’ve been offensive coordinator Dave Canales. He left to become the head coach of the Panthers, where he’ll hope to mold Bryce Young into a top NFL quarterback.

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert with NFL Network, broke down projected win totals for all 32 teams. She’s predicting the Buccaneers will win 7.8 games. (Atlanta gets the nod in the South). Frelund explained that she relied on a prediction formula based on stats.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” Frelund wrote.

She also noted “remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Odds for Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024

• Win Total: under 8.5 (-150)
• Make Playoffs: +140
• Win Division: +300
• Win Conference: +3000
• Win Super Bowl: +7000

Frelund wrote of the Buccaneers:

“The four-game stretch that figures to have the most influence on the 2024 Buccaneers’ fate sits right in the middle of the season. From mid-October to mid-November, Tampa Bay will run this gauntlet: vs. Baltimore (MNF), vs. Atlanta, at Kansas City (MNF), vs. San Francisco.

“The three-time reigning NFC South champions lost some high-profile defenders this offseason (Devin White, Shaq Barrett, Carlton Davis), and former offensive coordinator Dave Canales is now the head man in Carolina, so it could take a few games for everyone to begin rowing in the same direction.”

Of course, the Buccaneers did sign some defenders, bringing in linebacker Randy Gregory from the 49ers. Gregory was a one-time second-round pick of the Dallas Cowboys, but his career has generated more off-the-field headlines than big plays. The Bucs also brought in cornerback Bryce Hall from the Jets.

The Buccaneers added a terrific offensive line prospect in Duke’s Graham Barton. He was considered the top center prospect in the draft. Meanwhile, Tampa selected Alabama edge rusher Chris Braswell in the second round.

As for the rest of the NFC, Frelund’s formula predicts the 49ers will be the top team with 11.2 wins. They’re barely ahead of the Eagles, with 11.1 projected victories. She forecasts the Lions as third best with 10.6 wins and the Falcons fourth with 9.9. After all, they have a new head coach (Raheem Morris) and new quarterback (Kirk Cousins).

Who are the final three playoff teams? The Packers are at 9.8 wins, followed by the Rams at 9.2 and the Cowboys at 9.1. The Buccaneers register at 10th just ahead of division-rival Saints.

You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And check out On3.com’s NFL coverage here.